Raising the N-bogie

THE recklessness of Pakistan’s ministers knows no bounds. Two of them have raised the spectre of a nuclear conflict amid heightened cross-border tensions after the Pahalgam terror attack. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has said that his country would use nuclear weapons only if “there is a direct threat to our existence”, while Railway Minister Hanif Abbasi has warned that Pakistan’s arsenal — including Ghori, Shaheen and Ghaznavi missiles along with 130 nuclear warheads — has been kept “only for India”. Abbasi has claimed that the N-weapons are installed at secret locations and would be unleashed if India goes ahead with drastic steps such as stopping water supply to Pakistan. The message to New Delhi is clear: Pull back or be ready to face the consequences. The threat is also aimed at drawing international attention — the N-bogie is expected to prod one superpower or the other to persuade India to scale down retaliatory measures.

The sabre-rattling comes amid the release of an annual report by a renowned Swedish think tank, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It says that India’s military spending last year was nearly nine times that of Pakistan. Another key takeaway is that India has 172 nuclear warheads, slightly higher than Pakistan (170), even as both nations have continued to develop new types of nuclear systems. Ideally, such competition is considered good for deterrence, but the Pahalgam massacre has upset the equations.

India’s nuclear doctrine, adopted in 2003, has two main components: Building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrence; and a ‘no first use’ (NFU) policy under which nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere. However, Pakistan does not adhere to the NFU policy, making it a dangerous player in the subcontinent and beyond. Its ministers would be well advised to avoid irresponsible statements that may bring the two neighbours closer to the much-dreaded nuclear threshold.

Editorials