How demolitions changed the mood in Kashmir

THE April 22 terror strike at Baisaran in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 tourists from across India has exposed what people in Kashmir have known all along — that the “normalcy" in Kashmir that Union Home Minister Amit Shah frequently boasted of was not real. It had been achieved by means of a severe crackdown — one that created an artificial silence in the Valley, with tourists being encouraged to travel to Kashmir, for sightseeing and for pilgrimages, to give life to the normalcy story.

The ambushes on military vehicles and civilians in Jammu and the regularity with which encounters continued to take place showed that cross-border infiltration was not a thing of the past. It also bared gaps in intelligence. The infiltrators were tech-savvy, using new apps and devices that do not require SIM cards to communicate with one another. They hid out for weeks before striking. They appeared well trained.

The unguarded Baisaran meadow in Kashmir presented the attackers with a twin opportunity — to bring international attention back to Kashmir by puncturing the hot-air balloon of normalcy and create shock and grief in the rest of India, similar to the one after the Pulwama attack in 2019 or the Mumbai attack of 2008. They grabbed the opportunity and after carrying out the bloodbath, melted back into the forests from which they had suddenly emerged for their deadly mission.

The attack presents a unique challenge for the Modi government. After responding to the Jaish-e-Mohammed’s Uri attack in 2016 with the so-called “surgical" strike across the Line of Control and an escalated military response to the 2019 Pulwama attack in the form of an air strike on a Jaish-e-Mohmmed madarsa in Balakot in Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province — both publicly declared moves that were received with much applause for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “muscular" riposte to Pakistan — the government can’t be seen as doing anything less now.

Whether such a step will prevent another Uri, Pulwama or Baisaran cannot be predicted. Certainly, India’s two previous retaliations were no deterrent. Also, it remains unclear what those responses achieved on the ground. Rather, terrorists appear to hold the upper hand, with their ability to wind up India into a military posture against Pakistan at regular intervals.

Among the government’s immediate actions was to put the Indus Waters Treaty “in abeyance", which some ministers interpreted disingenuously for domestic audiences as “not allowing a drop of water to flow into Pakistan." Water will continue to flow across the border. And the reason is that even with the three rivers allotted to India, there is no way to stop the flow except by building more infrastructure to dam the water. The same is the case with the western rivers allotted to Pakistan. That work will take years, if not decades.

As India mulls its next big move, the work of investigating the attack and identifying the terrorists and those behind them is important. Investigators have said some of the attackers were Pakistani. The government holds Pakistan responsible for the attack, which was initially claimed by The Resistance Front, which security agencies say is a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba. It withdrew the claim four days later, echoing the widespread view in Pakistan that this was a ‘false flag operation’.

Only a thorough investigation can substantiate India’s conclusion that the Pakistani state is behind this attack. For domestic audiences, an allegation is enough. For Pakistan, no amount of evidence is enough, as counter-terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told me in an interview. Even after its agencies held the Lashkar-e-Toiba responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attack, Pakistan continues to deny responsibility.

For the international community, though, whose support and solidarity India will need if a military response of some kind is being contemplated, evidence of that link would be all important. In 2008, it was the phone calls that nailed Pakistan’s involvement in the attacks on Mumbai. In 2019, the JeM, based in Paksitan’s Bahawalpur, claimed that attack through a video message.

While the investigation continues without a breakthrough yet, those who carried out the Baisaran attack must be congratulating themselves on how the government and sections of India are playing to a predictable script.

Within a few hours of the massacre, Kashmiris came out to protest against the attack and proclaimed solidarity with the rest of the country. While some may have done so out of compulsion and circumstances to prove their loyalty to the watching eyes of the security forces and agencies, it is also true that for many, it was a spontaneous expression of anger, horror and grief at what had happened.

But if the perpetrators were worried at this backlash against them, the mood in the Valley changed within days, to be replaced with one of anger against the government.

The reversal came as those in charge took the questionable decision of demolishing homes of local men and boys suspected of having joined cross-border terror groups and detaining hundreds of people for questioning.

In all, nine homes were blasted to rubble. In some cases, it had been years since the families had seen these men. In one case, a neighbour’s home was also razed.

The changed mood was articulated by political parties as they called for a halt to this mindless punishment. An audio message, purportedly from someone named Ahmed Salaar, warned of a revenge that would be “a house for a house, a family member for a family member."

It is unclear if razing the family homes of Kashmiris who may or may not have been involved in the Baisaran attack was aimed at placating Indians demanding quick “justice". After all, large sections of India are now more used to bulldozers than investigations, charge-sheets and trials. In Kashmir, though, it only means another layer of alienation.

The demolitions, which took place despite and in violation of the Supreme Court’s orders against the practice, have now stopped.

But while the world waits for what happens next between India and Pakistan, the quick turnaround in public sentiment in the Valley, the harassment of Kashmiri students in other parts of India and, most definitely, the communal slurs directed at Muslims across the country, holding them all responsible for the attack, must be music to the ears of the perpetrators of Baisaran.

This is exactly what they wanted.

Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist.

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