Betting On Pope: All That Matters

Betting on the next Pope? Yes, it's hotter today than betting on the IPL! Reports say US$6 million were already staked on the papal outcome before the pontiff had even been laid to rest in Europe; in the US the number had independently touched US$5.5 million. The number will swell 10-15 times as the election gets closer, and if a victor doesn’t emerge soon in the initial rounds itself, the betting numbers could rocket manifolds.

Cardinal Parolin, who was Pope Francis’ principal adviser as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2014, is the +225 favourite at Londonbased William Hill sportsbook to be the next pope. If he wins, he would be the first Italian pope in 47 years. Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is the +250 cofavourite at BetOnline, with Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin, to be elected the next pope. Tagle, aka the “Asian Francis,” would be the first Asian pope if he wins the vote. Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson is the 5-1 third choice to be the next pope. He would be the first African pope in more than 1,500 years. So, the odds: Parolin at No. 1 is 9/4 favourite; Tagle is the 3/1 second choice and Turkson the 6/1 third pick.

What does that mean in simple English and Maths? Parolin holds a 37% chance of ascending to the papacy. Hot on his heels, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, known for his progressive tone and global outlook sits on odds with a 33% probability to make history as the first Asian pope. Other contenders with sizable backing include Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (the archbishop of Bologna who served as the late pope's special peace envoy for Ukraine), both currently listed at 16% probability. Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő has also emerged as a wildcard, adding geographical diversity to the field. Major bookies are offering odds on around 50 of 252 cardinals, although in theory deacons, priests and even lay people – although not women – can be chosen.

Gambling on papal conclaves is nothing new. Indeed, various historians have cited it as relatively common practice in the 16th century and even before the great banking dynasties of Rome started running the books. The Catholic Church has historically opposed betting on papal elections, even declaring it an excommunicable offense in 1591. This law was later repealed in 1918. In 2005, David Power, a leading book-maker was thrown out of St Peter’s Square for displaying his prices for the conclave that elected Pope Benedict. And yes, as light-hearted as papal odds may seem, a look at history is actually the best bet. If you had looked at history and gambled on the election of the previous three popes, you would have lost your underwear! Has anyone ever seen a Jesuit win? No. Has anyone ever seen a Pole get elected? No. And a German? No, no, no. Do you know who the last German pope was before Ratzinger? It was centuries before. So favourites are not necessarily always the winners.

The past betting odds are illuminating: Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina was 15th favourite with some bookies before being elected and taking the papal name Francis in 2013, while his predecessor Pope Benedict was also almost unfancied at first. Without solid information to trade on... papal betting markets largely reflect speculation, media narratives, and existing biases. More on that later.

The papal conclave – a centuries-old tradition that will determine Pope Francis's successor – will begin 15 to 20 days from now. Behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel, only Cardinal Electors under 80 years old (approximately 135 cardinals) will participate in this secretive process, leading to a 2/3 majority for the eventual winner.

Interestingly, of the six Cardinals from India, four of them will be eligible to vote in the conclave to elect the next Pope. Archbishop of Goa, Daman, and Diu, Cardinal Filipe Neri Ferrao; head of the Syro-Malabar branch of the Roman Catholic Church, Cardinal Baselios Cleemis; the Syro-Malabar Church's Jacob Koovakad; and the Archbishop of Hyderabad, Cardinal Anthony Poola, the first Dalit Cardinal are going to be part of the electoral college.

With odds as low as 2-1, Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, was the bookmakers’ favourites in 2013 to succeed Benedict XVI, the first pope to step down for almost 600 years. Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson was running a close second at 5-2 (this year he is beginning the race at No. 3), while Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican Secretary of State, was running third with odds of 3-1. Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet and Brazilian Cardinal Odilo Scherer completed the Top 5 – and bookmakers were offering 20-1 odds on Cardinal Timothy Dolan, America’s top Catholic. Eventually the bookmakers got it all wrong. Completely.

Interestingly, in 2013, Father Dougal Maguire – the dim-witted fictional priest from Irish television sitcom “Father Ted” was a 10,000-1 underdog. There were even 1,000-1 odds put out that U2 singer Bono would be the next pope, and Richard Dawkins, the famously outspoken atheist and scientist, had odds on an ominous 666- 1. British bookmakers were even offering 10,000-1 odds that disgraced American cyclist Lance Armstrong would be chosen to head up the church! Not that these were serious contenders,but for the bookmakers everybody is fair game.

So, who is likely to lead the 1.3 billion Christians worldwide as their new Pope? The most eloquent insight on the papal election comes from Cardinal Javier Barragan of Mexico and is worth remembering: “He who enters the conclave as a possible pope comes out a cardinal”.

(The writer is Chairman of ad agency Rediffusion)

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