Will China block Brahmaputra River to India? Pakistan appeals Xi Jinping government to stop river flow…, What impact would it have?
Islamabad: India has formally issued a notification giving effect to its decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. The notification was served to Pakistan on Thursday, a day after New Delhi announced suspending the treaty as part of retaliatory measures against Islamabad over the brazen terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. The government issued an official notification on holding the Indus Water Treaty in “abeyance”. After India’s tough stance, people in Pakistan are demanding that China stop India’s water supply. Pakistanis are hopeful that China will surely teach India a lesson. Additionally, Pakistani experts are projecting the situation in such a way that all of India’s rivers originate from China, and once China stops the water, India will struggle for every single drop. Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty could have a serious impact on Pakistan.
Although immediate effects are unlikely, if India stops sharing water data, it will become difficult for Pakistan to predict floods and droughts, which would impact agriculture. Consequently, leaders like Bilawal Bhutto and many Pakistani experts are openly talking about shedding Indian blood.
On the other hand, India has made it clear that terrorism will not be tolerated under any circumstances, and has completely cut off Pakistan’s resources. Pakistan has used all the means at its disposal to shed India’s blood through terrorism and the “thousand cuts” strategy. However, India’s patience has now run out. It is important to note that Pakistan was given more than 80 percent of the total resources of the Indus River Basin, along with financial assistance for building infrastructure on the rivers of western Punjab. But now, by suspending this treaty, India has shaken the very ground beneath Pakistan’s feet.
Can China block India’s water?
India has shown a great deal of patience when it comes to Pakistan. Despite the wars of 1965 and 1971, the Kargil conflict, and dozens of terrorist attacks, India never halted the Indus Water Treaty. This is why India’s current move appears to be its most aggressive one. If we use the Indus Water Treaty as a reference and talk about China and India, it is clear that the nature of the disputes between China and India is different from that with Pakistan. The first important point is that India does not spread terrorism within China, and disputes between the two countries are usually resolved through mutual dialogue, as was done after the Galwan clash.
Additionally, India does not attempt to instigate separatist movements or domestic violence within China. Therefore, China does not have such reasons (for hostility) as Pakistan might have against India. Between India and China, the conflict is purely about border issues, which certainly have the potential to escalate dangerously, but China does not have reasons similar to Pakistan.
In addition, just as India and Pakistan were bound by the Indus Water Treaty, there is no such agreement between India and China. There is no legally binding, comprehensive water-sharing treaty between the two countries. However, there are memorandums of understanding (MOUs) for sharing hydrological data for certain rivers like the Brahmaputra during the monsoon season. But as the upstream country, China operates with much fewer constraints than India under the Indus Water Treaty framework.
Moreover, if China were to withhold water, it would likely be due to its energy projects or a desire for geopolitical leverage, not terrorism. Therefore, Pakistan’s desire for China to act in such a manner against India is nothing more than an attempt to create a “father figure” out of someone else.
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