The horrific terror attack on April 22, 2025, in Kashmir’s Pahalgam, where 26 tourists were gunned down, has pushed India and Pakistan to the edge of a dangerous cliff. India blames Pakistan, pointing to “cross-border linkages,” while Pakistan denies involvement, calling for a neutral probe. Tensions have skyrocketed, with India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, revoking visas for Pakistani nationals, and both sides exchanging gunfire along the Line of Control for two nights straight. Pakistan’s closure of its airspace to Indian airlines and India’s demolition of suspects’ homes in Kashmir signal a spiraling crisis. As these nuclear-armed neighbors trade fire and accusations, the world watches with bated breath: what if this escalates into a nuclear war? The consequences would be catastrophic, not just for India and Pakistan, but for the entire planet.

India and Pakistan, born from the violent partition of 1947, have a long history of conflict` conflict, mostly over Kashmir. Wars in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999 have left deep wounds, and their nuclear ambitions have only raised the stakes. India became a nuclear power in 1974 with its “Smiling Buddha” test, and Pakistan followed in 1998. Today, India has about 172 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan around 170, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as of January 2024. Both are modernizing their arsenals—India with its Agni-V missile, capable of hitting multiple targets, and Pakistan with its Ababeel missile. The recent Pahalgam attack has reignited fears of how quickly their rivalry could spiral into the unthinkable.

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be a disaster of unimaginable scale. A 2019 study from Princeton University estimates that if India used 100 warheads and Pakistan 150, up to 125 million people could die within hours. Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Karachi, and Lahore would be reduced to rubble, with firestorms engulfing millions. The attack in Pahalgam, where 26 lives were lost in a meadow meant for picnics, shows how fast violence can shatter peace. If such an incident triggered a nuclear response, the devastation would be instant and total.

The global fallout would be equally terrifying. A nuclear exchange would release 16 to 36 million tonnes of soot into the atmosphere, blocking 20 to 35 percent of sunlight. According to a study in Science Advances, this would cool the Earth by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius and cut rainfall by 15 to 30 percent. Crops would fail across the globe, and nearly 2 billion people, especially in poorer nations, could face starvation. This “nuclear winter” would disrupt food supplies, economies, and societies far beyond South Asia. The Pahalgam attack has already strained relations, with India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty—called an “act of war” by Pakistan—showing how quickly tensions can escalate.

● Soot refers to fine black or dark particles, primarily carbon, produced by the incomplete burning of materials like wood, oil, or buildings during a nuclear explosion or massive fire. In a nuclear war, soot is released in huge amounts from firestorms in cities, rising into the atmosphere. It can block sunlight, causing a “nuclear winter” by cooling the Earth and disrupting climate patterns, which leads to crop failures and global famine.

India’s nuclear doctrine is built on “No First Use” (NFU), meaning it would only use nuclear weapons in retaliation. But it reserves the right to respond to chemical or biological attacks, and debates in 2019 hinted at reconsidering NFU. Pakistan, however, has no NFU policy. Its “full spectrum deterrence” allows nuclear use if India’s army crosses its borders, attacks its forces, blocks its economy, or destabilizes its politics. The Pahalgam attack, with India alleging Pakistani involvement, could easily be seen as crossing one of these red lines. Pakistan’s focus on tactical nuclear weapons—smaller, battlefield-ready devices—lowers the threshold for nuclear use, making escalation even more likely.

The risks are not just theoretical. In 2022, India accidentally fired a BrahMos missile into Pakistan, a mistake that could have triggered disaster. The recent ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, reported on April 25 and 26, 2025, show how fragile the situation is. Kashmir’s police have identified three suspects in the Pahalgam attack, including two Pakistani nationals, and India’s security forces are cracking down hard, arresting associates and razing homes. Pakistan’s call for an international probe, dismissed by India’s Omar Abdullah, only deepens the mistrust.

The international community is alarmed. The UN has urged “maximum restraint,” and the U.S., UK, and others have issued travel advisories warning against visiting border areas. U.S. President Donald Trump, while downplaying tensions, acknowledged the attack as “bad.” Iran and Saudi Arabia have offered to mediate, but India’s vow to hunt down the perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth,” as stated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Pakistan’s warnings of defending its sovereignty, leave little room for dialogue. The suspension of treaties like the Indus Waters and Simla Agreements, which survived past wars, shows how dire things have become.

A nuclear war would leave no winners. India’s larger military might give it a conventional edge, but Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could level the playing field. Both nations would face economic collapse, with Pakistan’s already fragile economy—reliant on international loans—hit hardest. Globally, trade would grind to a halt, food prices would soar, and millions would flee, creating a refugee crisis of unprecedented scale. The Pahalgam attack, one of the deadliest in Kashmir since 2000, has already sparked protests in India and condemnation worldwide. If it leads to nuclear conflict, the world would pay the price for decades.

The stakes are clear: India and Pakistan must step back from the brink. The Pahalgam attack has exposed the raw anger and grief fueling their rivalry, with India’s actions—like closing border crossings and expelling Pakistani diplomats—met by Pakistan’s retaliatory measures, like banning Indian flights. Both nations, and the world, cannot afford the cost of a nuclear war. The memory of 26 lives lost in a Kashmir meadow must be a warning, not a prelude to annihilation.