China’s conciliatory comments are purely cosmetic

IN recent months, China has been making seemingly conciliatory comments in an apparent bid for free access to India’s market. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent congratulatory messages to the Indian President and Prime Minister on April 1, on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, which were cosmetic. China’s Ambassador to India recently spoke of lowering tariffs to promote Indian exports to China, but the obstacles also include China’s non-tariff trade barriers and the thicket of China’s confidential regulations which selectively restrict trade.

Significantly, Xi Jinping’s recent tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14 to 18, focussed on Asia and sought to highlight the importance China gives to developing good ties with neighbours. There was emphasis on promoting the “community with a shared future in the new era as a new starting point", which was included in the individual joint statements.

The absence of warmth in India-China relations was evident in Xi Jinping not sending a message on the terrorist attack on innocent Indian tourists in Pahalgam. Only the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson and China’s Ambassador to India expressed condolences.

In fact, the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper People’s Daily too did not publish any report at least till April 24. It published that Pakistan had expressed condolences. This is in stark contrast to the messages pouring in from others, including the US and Russian presidents.

A People’s Daily article disclosed that the ‘Central Conference on Neighbourhood Diplomacy’, held on April 8-9 in Beijing, for the first time “proposed an Asian security model of sharing danger and security, seeking common ground while reserving differences, and dialogue and consultation." It said this will be based on China and its neighbours “jointly protecting security."

There were no references to India in the plethora of articles on China’s neighbourhood policy, revealing Beijing’s singular focus on economic interaction with India. Chinese leaders have notably avoided any mention of the clashes that took place between India and China in 2020 or the tensions that continue along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Meanwhile, reports show that China continues its military build-up across the Line of Actual Control and is constructing border defences, communication infrastructure, airports, etc. On March 21, a Henan-based Chinese think tank published an article captioned ‘During the military reforms, the Tibet Military District, Joint Logistics Support Force, and the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police were all upgraded’. It cited a report published by China’s prestigious National Defense University titled: ‘2024 Border Defense Construction Research Report’. The report said the Tibet Military District, the Joint Logistics Support Force and the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police had been upgraded to comprehensively enhance high-altitude combat capabilities and that their overall combat effectiveness of border defense had increased by 43.7 per cent. It said that after the upgrade of the Tibet Military District to a full Theatre command level, the Tibet Military District had greater decision-making power and resource allocation capabilities.

It disclosed that the upgraded Tibet Military District now “oversees five high-altitude mechanized brigades, two mountain brigades, one special operations brigade, and multiple support units, representing a 28.5% increase in troop strength." A Special Operations Brigade had been newly established and equipped with the latest high-altitude special gear and high-precision strike weapons. The report added that there had been a qualitative leap in weapons and equipment and new systems tailored for high-altitude combat, including upgraded Type 15 light tanks, highland versions of the Z-20 helicopter and long-range rocket systems suited for cold conditions. It said the Tibet Detachment of the Joint Logistics Support Force was also upgraded from a full division level to a deputy corps level, and in early 2025, the upgraded detachment increased its personnel by 1,200.

The article also revealed that the personnel strength of the Tibet Corps of the Armed Police was increased by 32 per cent to a deputy corps level, overseeing six detachments, which now cover all seven prefecture-level cities in Tibet. It noted that by early 2025, the Corps had achieved 85 per cent modernisation, introduced a new highland unmanned reconnaissance system, expanded border patrol coverage by 3.7 times and greatly enhanced control over border areas. Saying that shifting geopolitics was the reason for the upgrade, it explained: “Tibet borders several countries and serves as a crucial defensive line in China’s southwest. In recent years, the surrounding region has seen increasingly complex dynamics and new security challenges." With the upgradation, “a multidimensional and comprehensive border defense system has been formed — capable of effectively responding to all kinds of security threats."

It quoted a routine Chinese Defence Ministry press briefing of 2024, which stated: “Strengthening military forces in the Tibet region is a necessary measure to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity." It added that the upgradation of military forces in Tibet sends a clear signal: China has both the resolve and capacity to defend every inch of its southwestern border. The report cited military analysts as noting that “China’s comprehensive military upgrade in Tibet indicates a more proactive and assertive defensive posture in the plateau border regions." The article also revealed that in early 2025, China’s Central Military Commission issued special instructions for strengthening the military in Tibet: “Further deepen reform achievements, enhance joint combat capabilities of the three forces, and provide strong guarantees for safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests."

It is apparent from China’s official media reporting on India and the developments along the LAC that the conciliatory statements by Chinese leaders are only intended to gain access to India’s market. The tariff war with the US makes it imperative for China to seek new markets and India is the largest untapped market in the Indo-Pacific.

A major potential challenge on the horizon is the issue of the XIVth Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. The military preparations being undertaken by China’s Central Military Commission in 2025 indicate that China intends to retain the option of applying military pressure against India in the not too distant future.

Jayadeva Ranade is president, Centre for China Analysis & Strategy.

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