Why is Indus Water Treaty important for Pakistan? As India suspends the 1960 agreement after Pahalgam attack, read how geography decides geopolitics here

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, suspended the decades-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan on 23^rd April 2025. This water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank will remain suspended until Pakistan ends its support for cross-border terrorism. This, along with several other diplomatic and strategic measures, came in response to the brutal terror strike in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam that left 26 tourists dead.

Islamic Jihadis from the Pakistani terror outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba’s offshoot, The Resistance Force, first confirmed the Hindu identity of tourists by checking for circumcision and asking to recite Kalma, and then shot them dead.

As the Indian government’s strong response has rattled the Pakistani establishment and stoked fear among its populace regarding potential scarcity of water in the economically backwards nation, it is pertinent to understand what the Indus Water Treaty is, and why it matters to Pakistan.

Indus Water Treaty

It all started in 1948, when India temporarily cut off the Indus water to Pakistan but reopened it later. Pakistan, however, approached the United Nations (UN) in 1951, alleging that India had cut off water to numerous Pakistani villages. Eventually, the Indus water agreement was prepared in 1954 by the World Bank based on the recommendations of the United Nations. After years of discussions, India and Pakistan agreed on shared ownership of six rivers. Pakistan was the lower riparian state at the time of India’s independence in 1947, since the border between the two countries was defined across the Indus Basin.

Signed on 19^th September 1960 in Karachi, the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan was brokered by the World Bank. This water-sharing agreement governs the use of the Indus River system by India and Pakistan. Signed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan Field Marshal Ayyub Khan, this treaty allocates the waters of six rivers originating in the Himalayas, broadly divided into two categories: the eastern rivers and the western rivers. The eastern rivers Ravi (origin in Himachal Pradesh), Beas (flows through Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, and Sutlej (originates in Tibet, flows through India into Pakistan) were allocated to India, while Indus, Chenab and Jhelum were allocated to Pakistan.

India effectively utilises the waters of eastern rivers for hydropower, irrigation and other purposes. Meanwhile, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are essential for Pakistan’s hydropower, irrigation and other needs, with Indus being nothing short of Pakistan’s lifeline.

While the signing of IWT was touted as a historic step towards mutual cooperation and peace, this treaty was not essentially balanced; in fact, it actually benefited Pakistan more due to the higher water flow in its assigned rivers, the western rivers.

Notably, under this arrangement, India controls around 20 per cent of the total water flow, which translates into 33 million acre-feet or 41 billion cubic meters annually, and Pakistan gets 80 per cent, which is approximately 135 million acre-feet or 99 billion cubic meters. This agreement allowed limited non-consumptive uses of the western rivers, such as hydropower generation, however, it restricted blocking or dramatically altering water flow into Pakistan.  

In addition, the treaty also gave Pakistan the right to object to the designs of Indian hydropower projects on western rivers. Under the IWT, the commissioners of India and Pakistan are supposed to meet once a year, alternatively in India and Pakistan.

“The Government of India and the Government of Pakistan, being equally desirous of attaining the most complete and satisfactory utilisation of the waters of the Indus system of rivers and recognising the need, therefore, of fixing and delimiting, in a spirit of goodwill and friendship, the rights and obligations of each in relation to the other concerning the use of these waters and of making provision for the settlement, in a cooperative spirit, of all such questions as may hereafter arise in regard to the interpretation or application of the provisions agreed upon herein, have resolved to conclude a Treaty in furtherance of these objectives, and for this purpose have named as their plenipotentiaries…” the Preamble of the Indus Water Treaty reads.

However, with the treaty in abeyance, India will no longer be required to heed Pakistan’s ‘concerns’ or ‘objections’ (read deliberate obstructions over the designs of Indian projects.

India has, on humanitarian grounds, never considered scrapping the IWT altogether despite Pakistan’s repeated betrayals and violations of the 1972 Shimla Agreement, under which the defeated Pakistan and a triumphant India decided to resolve issues bilaterally. However, Pakistan’s repeated attempts at internationalising the Kashmir issue have violated the agreement. Besides, as former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, once admitted, Pakistan also violated the Lahore Declaration of 1999, as the Pakistani Army intruded into Kargil, stoking the Kargil War, where the self-proclaimed ‘Riyasat-e-Medina’ suffered yet another crushing defeat.

Through repeated unprovoked conventional wars, cross-border terrorism or proxy war, creating safe haven for Islamic terrorists to repeatedly challenge India’s territorial integrity, Pakistan has proven to be a hostile neighbour with its army and governments, regardless of which party is in power. Successive Pakistani governments have thwarted every Indian attempt at bringing normalcy and in bilateral ties. Discontinuing the one-sided ‘Aman ki asha’, the Modi government took a strong stand and decided that blood and water cannot flow together adding that no bilateral talks can be held with Pakistan until it stops sponsoring Jihadi terrorism against India. Pakistani establishment’s support to Islamic terrorism once again in Pahalgam, however, confirms that they are not ready to shun their intransigence. Rather, the Pakistani army thrives on conflict with India. Thus, responding to Pakistan’s aggression in terms it understands best became an ineluctable imperative for the Modi government.

Where does India’s suspension of IWT legally stand? How would Pakistan retaliate?

As soon as the official announcement regarding India putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance came, one of the first concerns raised was whether this arbitrary suspension holds legal grounds or not. The answer to this question is that the IWT has no specific provision for its abrogation. However, as per Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties, there is room for the repudiation of a treaty considering the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred concerning those existing at the time of conclusion of the Treaty. Thus, if Pakistan, which it most likely will, raises the matter with the World Bank or at other international forums, India will strongly present its case and justify its stern action.

Interestingly, although the Indus Water Treaty does not specifically provide for abrogation of the treaty, it has a mechanism for dispute resolution. The treaty’s Article IX, as well as Annexures F and G, provide for raising grievances before the Permanent Indus Commission, followed by a neutral expert and then any forum of arbitrators.

In a big win for India, in January 2025, the World Bank-appointed neutral expert declared that it has the authority to resolve the disputes between India and Pakistan regarding two hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. Notably, the ruling supported New Delhi’s stance.

The Modi government’s decision to suspend IWT has predictably rattled the Pakistani government, which fails to call its own backing of Islamic terrorism against India as ‘cowardly’ but deems India’s decisive deterrence as ‘cowardly’ and ‘immature’. Pakistan’s chagrin over India putting IWT in abeyance can be better understood from the statement of Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a former Pakistani federal law minister, who back in 2016 said that arbitration would hardly offer any recourse to Pakistan if India revokes the treaty, as it would imply that India has done away with it. Thus, the dispute resolution mechanism of IWT will be useless to Pakistan.

“In case India ‘revokes’ the treaty, it literally means it has shunned it. The dispute resolution mechanism under Article IX and Annexes F and G of the IWT will be of no use and assistance to Pakistan. It is limited to a dispute under the treaty and not meant to provide for specific performance of the treaty itself,” Soofi told the Dawn newspaper.  

While Pakistan does not really have much options other than approaching the Permanent Court of Arbitration, as it did during the Kishanganga dispute, however, Pakistani government which operates largely under Pakistan Army may adopt its usual hardline stance, approach all international forums including United Nations, accessible to cry same old, ‘Pakistan has nothing to do with terror attacks in India’ rhetoric to play victim and accuse India of ‘water terrorism’. It may further seek support from its ally-cum-overlord China, seeking investments from the country in water storage or alternative irrigation systems to offset its reliance on India-controlled rivers. Pakistan may seek Chinese support to accelerate projects like Diamer-Bhasha Dam. It may also push China to escalate border tensions with India.

Alongside narrative building and seeking support from allies, Pakistan may also further escalate tensions along the Line of Control in Kashmir by intensifying ceasefire violations. While the Pakistan Army has ordered certain missile tests to keep its public entertained and in the impression that they are ‘ready’ for any situation, however, in reality, Pakistan’s economic and military disparity does not even allow it to compare with India, forget competing or fighting against it in a conventional war. Another step, which is the Pakistani establishment’s, especially ISI’s, favourite and convenient measure, is escalating covert support for Islamic terrorist groups in Jammu and Kashmir. Moreover, it may resort to cyberattacks on India’s water management systems, data theft and similar activities.

India puts Indus Water Treaty in abeyance: What will be its impact on Pakistan amidst its ongoing water crisis

More than essential, the Indus river system is existential for Pakistan. It provides water for 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural land, which is around 16 million hectares. Irrigation alone absorbs 93% of this water, sustaining the country’s agricultural backbone.

Moreover, the Indus river system serves more than 237 million people. It must be noted that Pakistan accounts for 61% of the Indus Basin population. Major urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and Multan access their water straight from these rivers. In addition, Pakistan’s Hydropower plants such as Tarbela (supported by Indus river water) and Mangla Dam (supported by Jhelum) also rely on continuous flows.

The Indus system accounts for around 25% of Pakistan’s GDP and sustains crops such as wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. What further exacerbates the situation for Pakistan is its ongoing water crisis. India’s hostile neighbours’ per capita availability is also steadily dropping.

Under the prevailing circumstances, if India closes off or drastically decreases flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the consequences could prove disastrous for Pakistan, as their agricultural production could decline, putting food security for millions of Pakistanis at risk. Besides, reduced water flows would dry up urban water supplies, thus destabilising cities.

Moreover, power generation would halt, incurring losses in their industries and causing severe inconvenience to Pakistani households. Other adverse impacts of India’s action could be loan defaults, a surge in unemployment, and increased migration, especially in rural areas. In a nutshell, an effective implementation of the Indus Water Treaty’s suspension and subsequent measures to divert water flows would plunge an already failed state of Pakistan into utter chaos.

It is pertinent to note that Pakistan is grappling with the severe water crisis. As per an International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) report, Pakistan is facing a water crisis caused by climate change, overuse of resources, inefficient water management and rapid population growth. “The country’s per capita water availability has drastically decreased, and it’s now categorised as water-scarce rather than water-stressed, ” the IISD report says.

Another interesting point to note here is that with India suspending IWT, it is no longer obliged to follow reservoir flushing on its projects in Western rivers, including the Kishanganga reservoir. While under the IWT, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August, which is the peak monsoon season, however, with the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, experts opine that India can fill its reservoirs anytime. While this move will significantly benefit India, it will prove disastrous for Pakistan, especially Panjab, which heavily relies on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.

Moreover, India can now also stop relevant data sharing as well as prevent Pakistani officials from visiting its two hydropower projects the Kishanganga HEP on Kishanganga, a tributary of the Jhelum, and the Ratle HEP on the Chenab, both under construction in Jammu and Kashmir.

India has been maximising its share of water over the years

The Indus Water Treaty gave India sole usage of the waters of three eastern rivers, which had an average of about 33 million acre-feet (MAF). Pakistan was granted similar control over the waters of the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, with an average of about 135 MAF; however, a condition was also put forward. The treaty guarantees India the right to produce hydroelectricity through run-of-river (RoR) projects on the western rivers, provided that certain design and operation requirements are satisfied.

Over the years, India has progressively worked to utilise its full allocation under the Indus Water Treaty, particularly, after the 2016 Uri Attack. India has in the recent years, increasingly focussed on bolstering infrastructure to capture water from the eastern rivers and limited use of western rivers.

In this direction, PM Modi inaugurated the Kishanganga project on the western river of Jhelum in Jammu and Kashmir, in May 2018. Over 300 megawatts of electricity might be generated and at least 30,000 hectares of land can be irrigated using the approximately 0.65 million acre-feet (MAF) of water that the Kishanganga project stores from the Ujh river. PM Modi’s bold move came despite Pakistan’s protests.

The Kishanganga hydropower plant, which is situated on the Indus tributaries, started construction in 2007 and the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant, built on the Chenab had its foundation stone placed in 2013.

For a long time, India allowed some water of the Ravi River to flow into Pakistan unused. However, with the completion of the Shahpurkandi Barrage in 2024, this flow was halted, and around 1,150 cusecs of water were diverted to Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab for irrigation. With this, India not only maximised the usage of an allocated eastern river for domestic use but also reduced water reaching Pakistan. Meanwhile, construction work of the Ujh Multipurpose Project and Makaura Pattan Barrage on the Ravi River and run-of-river (RoR) projects, including Ratle and Kiru on the Chenab and Jhelum, respectively, has also been accelerated.

It, however, is essential to note that an on-paper suspension of the Indus Water Treaty does not stop water flow to Pakistan. India is not physically blocking the flow of Western rivers. However, with IWT put in abeyance, India can pursue its hydroelectric projects on western rivers without having to worry about treaty restrictions and build infrastructure to alter and control the flow of water.

While, the completion and commissioning of India’s various hydropower projects is not without financial, environmental and other challenges, India’s policy shift since 2016, with PM Modi taking a strong stance of stopping “every drop” of eastern river water from flowing to Pakistan, India has made it clear that humanity is for those who value human lives not for those driven by jihadist fanaticism and hatred against India.

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