How Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Affect Pakistan Post Pahalgam Terror Attack?
In response to the recent terror attack in Pahalgam, India has taken a significant step by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. This decision was among five key measures approved during a Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The move could have far-reaching implications, especially for Pakistan’s water security and agricultural economy.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Signed on September 19, 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty is a landmark agreement between India and Pakistan that governs the distribution and usage of water from the Indus River system. It was facilitated by the World Bank after nearly a decade of negotiations and signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan.
The treaty was created to peacefully manage the shared water resources after the Partition of British India in 1947, which left the river system split between the two new nations.
How the Treaty functions?
The IWT divides the six rivers of the Indus basin between the two countries:
India receives unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Pakistan is granted control over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, which collectively make up around 80% of the total river flow.
Despite this division, both countries are allowed limited use of the other's rivers for purposes like hydropower generation, irrigation, and transport, provided they follow specific technical criteria to avoid interference with the other nation's water supply.
Why was the Treaty important?
When India gained independence in 1947, the Indus River system, originating in Tibet and flowing through India, Pakistan, and even touching China and Afghanistan-became a geopolitical flashpoint. In 1948, India temporarily halted water flow to Pakistan, sparking immediate concerns in the newly formed country.
To de-escalate tensions, the issue was brought before the United Nations, leading to the World Bank’s intervention and eventual creation of the IW, a rare example of successful cross-border water diplomacy.
How suspension impact Pakistan?
The Indus River system is the lifeblood of Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces. Pakistan receives about 154.3 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually through this basin, which supports: 23% of the nation’s GDP & 68% of its rural population. If water flow is disrupted:
1. Crop yields could plummet, leading to food shortages.
2. The rural economy may face severe distress.
3. Water scarcity could worsen due to Pakistan’s already limited storage capacity, with dams like Tarbela and Mangla offering just 14.4 MAF of live storage-roughly 10% of its annual water allocation.
Pakistan also battles groundwater depletion, salinity, and outdated irrigation infrastructure, all of which compound the risks posed by the suspension of this treaty.
What’s next?
The decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty marks a significant move in Indo-Pak relations, traditionally governed by strategic restraint. While the treaty has withstood wars and conflicts for over six decades, its suspension introduces uncertainty into a region already fraught with tension.
Observers note that any prolonged disruption could not only destabilize Pakistan’s food supply and economic structure but also undermine decades of water diplomacy in South Asia.
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