India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty: What Does This Mean For Pakistan? Will Water Supply Stop Immediately?

India on April 23 suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, effectively stopping all negotiations with Pakistan over the sharing of waters from the  Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India has now reserved all rights to the waters of these rivers. This is the first time that the IWT has been used as a strategic diplomatic tool since its signing in 1960.

All the rivers from India to Pakistan, putting India in a strategic position for negotiations.

Why Was The Indus Waters Treaty Suspended?

Tensions between India and Pakistan reached a new low over the past 48 hours when Pakistan-based terrorist organisation 'The Resistance Front', an offshoot of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, killed 26 people in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam. The terrorists identified the victims, mostly tourists, by their religion and shot them dead.

Following the attack, India convened a meeting of its Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and suspended the IWT. 

Indus Waters Treaty Took 9 Years To Sign  

Signed in 1960 with the World Bank as a guarantor, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been hailed as a rare example of cooperation between two nuclear-armed rival neighbours. The negotiations went on for 9 years before an agreement could be signed. The agreement divided the waters of six rivers in the Indus basin, granting India exclusive rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan received the lion's share of the western rivers —Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

For decades, the treaty withstood wars, diplomatic standoffs, and even periods of near-total breakdown in bilateral relations. India had been patient until this point and refrained from using river waters, which are a lifeline for Pakistan, as a strategic tool. This is the first time that India has suspended the treaty.

Pakistan now has 90 days to come to the table for talks. But the foremost condition would be for Pakistan to denounce terror attacks on India and take concrete action against terror outfits to show that it is against terrorism.

What Does IWT Suspension Mean?

By putting the Indus Waters Treaty on hold, India is no longer obligated to allow the bulk of the Indus system's water to flow into Pakistan. This decision opens the door for India to potentially halt or divert the flow of approximately 39 billion cubic metres of water that currently sustains Pakistan’s fields, cities, and power plants.

India now also will have the freedom to construct new storage facilities or divert water from the western rivers — actions previously restricted by the treaty. The government can also withhold water flow data and block Pakistani officials from inspecting hydropower projects on these rivers.

What Is At Stake For Pakistan?

The consequences for Pakistan could be severe. The country’s agriculture, which forms the backbone of its economy, relies heavily on the Indus and its tributaries. Any disruption in water supply threatens not only food security but also the livelihoods of millions of farmers.

Blocking the Indus waters could also push Pakistan into a blackout, as major cities and much of Pakistan’s hydropower infrastructure depend on these rivers. A sudden or prolonged reduction in water flow could trigger shortages, blackouts, and widespread hardship.

Will Water Flow Stop Immediately?

While the announcement is bold, any immediate impact is unlikely as India currently lacks the infrastructure to stop or redirect the vast volumes of water from the Indus River System for at least a couple of years. The announcement of abeyance from the IWT is more of a political pressure tactic and a strategic manoeuvre to show Pakistan that India is not going to be on the back foot.

Although, there will be no immediate impact on Pakistan, India will have a major advantage as it can continue its hydro-electric projects — the Kishan Ganga river hydel project, which is being constructed on a tributary of the Jhelum, and the Chenab hydel project. While the 330 MW project on the Kishan Ganga was inaugurated in 2018, the Chenab hydropower project is still under construction.

The two nations are divided over the legality of the projects, with Pakistan seeking a solution by a "neutral expert". It also approached the World Bank. However, the World Bank is not financing either project.

The IWT suspension also comes alongside other punitive measures, including the closure of the Wagah-Attari border and a downgrading of diplomatic ties. The combined effect is a sharp escalation in an already volatile relationship.

What Can Pakistan Do Now?

While the easiest and most plausible solution for Pakistan is to denounce terrorism, initiate action against terror outfits, and resolve the matter at the government level, it is unlikely to do so.

Pakistan is expected to seek international mediation, possibly turning to the World Bank or other global forums. The suspension of the treaty, unprecedented in its history, could draw in major world powers concerned about stability in the region.

India has shown in the past that it is more than willing to welcome any initiative that could give the two nations a shot at peace. However, Pakistan has refused to give up its reliance on cross-border infiltration and has kept up its illegal occupation of parts of Kashmir.

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