Peace Window
Good news is emerging from Moscow and Kyiv and US President Donald Trump’s new strategy of mixing diplomacy with threat seems to be paying off. For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin on 21 April announced he is open to the possibility of bilateral talks with Ukraine. This could be an outcome of the pressure from the US on both sides to agree to a quick peace deal. At the same time Putin’s climbdown from his earlier stated position setting conditions for the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before any talks for peace could be the outcome of an assurance from the US administration for a favourable deal.
US, European and Ukrainian officials are set to meet 23 April in London after Washington warned that it could abandon its efforts on ending the conflict if there were no signs of progress. Dramatically, 48 hours before the meeting Putin said it could be possible to discuss the halting of strikes against civilian infrastructure directly with Kyiv. As an evidence of his new gesture he also referred to Russia’s decision to implement a surprise 30-hour Easter truce – which both sides accused each other of violating. Putin had previously demanded Zelenskyy be replaced before any peace initiatives could be taken up. What comes as a relief is that Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared for any discussion to halt attacks on civilian targets. In his nightly video address he said his country was expecting a clear response from Moscow. “We are ready for any conversation about how to achieve this,” he insisted.
What is interesting is the tone both Putin and Zelenskyy are using to claim that they had all along “talked about” peace initiatives, even though Putin had previously stipulated that elections must be held in Ukraine to elect a new President. Obviously, Russia was calculating to install a puppet President in Ukraine to accept its terms for peace.
Drone attacks and other offensives by both parties are still continuing. However, the willingness being shown by Putin and Zelenskyy to begin a ceasefire leading to end of the conflict appears to be a response to Trump’s demand that they show the “enthusiasm” to end their hostilities so that the US does not have to walk away from the peace initiatives.
A Ukrainian delegation is to reach London 23 April for talks with Britain, France and the US. The talks are a follow-up to a Paris meeting last week where the US and European states discussed ways to end the war and the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, reportedly presented Washington’s plan for ending the war. Putin is apparently trying not to push Trump further and make his task as a peacemaker too difficult. Leaks suggest the Trump administration is now working out a peace deal that heavily favours Russia which is why Putin has responded to the peace initiative with such alacrity as had never been shown before. There are indications that the deal would include a pause to the conflict along the existing 1,000-km frontline, recognition that Crimea belongs to Moscow and a veto on Ukraine’s NATO membership. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station – which Russia seized in 2022 – would be part of a “neutral” zone. Russia has maintained that Ukraine cede all the land Putin claims to have annexed and accept permanent neutrality. Ukraine says that would amount to surrender and leave it undefended if Moscow attacks again.
Zelenskyy had a taste of bullying by both Trump and US Vice President JD Vance in Washington a few weeks back for not agreeing to US terms. He would certainly not provoke them further, but at the same time he would not be alone in defending his country’s interests as his European allies have rallied behind him through funds and arms since the humiliation Trump and Vance heaped on him. Peace does have a chance if Putin and Zelenskyy can find common grounds to safeguard their respective interests. However in the long term interest of peace, it is essential that the Trump administration does not bend over backwards to please Putin and instead keeps Europe and the rest of the world in view for a better future where no powerful nation bullies a smaller country for whatever reason.
News