Vance visit, joyful optics primed to soften Trump’s tough tariff blow

Like in life, there are a few accidents in politics and geopolitics. Like US Vice President J.D. Vance’s ongoing visit to India. With wife Usha and their three children in tow, the Vances have done quite a lot of India already—visiting temples, shopping for knick-knacks at Janpath and with plans to see the Taj Mahal soon.

 

Their Monday visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official residence in New Delhi with the kids relaxing on the opulent sofas happily painted out a picture of two closely-knit families meeting over a lazy dinner—all meant to resonate a chord that everything is friendly about India and the United States.

 

“Our kids just like him. And I think that, because kids are such good, strong characters, I just like Prime Minister Modi, too. And I think it's a great foundation for the future of a relationship,” Vance said of PM Modi and their visit to his residence.

 

Even the guide and others at the markets and touristy places who interacted with the Vances made the right polite noises.

 

But in Washington DC, tough negotiations are on with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her US counterparts working hard to hammer out a trade treaty that will sail out the bilateral ties from tariff-bombed choppy waters to still ones.

 

Trump has not been quite sparing in his words on India, often labelling India as “Tariff abuser”.

 

But a trade treaty will help India avert the 26% sweeping tariff imposition by the US although that has now been set on pause for 90 days. The pact will also provide a framework for the ambitious target to more than double India-US trade to $500 billion by 2030.

 

And for good measure, Vance said in Jaipur: “The future of the 21st century will be determined by the strength of India and the US.”

 

Because at this time in history, the US needs India like no other country.

 

There are several reasons. India has garnered substantial economic and military clout and is being increasingly looked upon as a leader of the Global South. Located strategically, India offers a vantage position from where plans to counter the Chinese can well be set. India also offers a huge market.

 

Additionally, the businessman in Trump has also impacted traditionally very close ties with Japan and South Korea, historically the US’s closest allies. Proximate ties with India would wipe off a certain amount of goodwill lost in the Far East.

 

And offering India a range of products from US energy to fifth-generation F35 fighter jets, Vance said on Tuesday in Jaipur: “We want to make a bright new world… I believe that our nations have much to offer to one another, and that’s why we come to you as partners.”

 

The Vice President’s disavowal of the older American policy with India was nowhere more sharp than when he said India needed no more preaching: “Now we’re not here to preach that you do things any one particular way. Too often in the past, Washington approached Prime Minister Modi with an attitude of preaching. Prior administrations saw India as a source of low-cost labour.” Now that can be certainly construed as a wish to break with the past.

 

The trillion-dollar question is how far India would go to invest for a more robust relationship with the Americans. And at what cost?  

India