Liberals Vs Conservatives: Where Things Stand In Canada Polls 2025

With the 2025 Canada elections around the corner, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party continues to maintain a lead in voting intentions over rival Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. The latest opinion polls show over 43 per cent of Canadians would likely vote for the Liberals if the election were to be held today. Around 38 per cent of Canadians still favour the Conservative Party, according to the CBC poll tracker. 

Among other opposition parties, 8.3 per cent of Canadians favour Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP), 5.4 per cent favour Yves-Francois Blanchet-led Bloc Quebecois-- which only runs candidates in the province of Quebec. The rest of the Canadians would likely vote for other small parties. 

Liberals Heading Towards Majority 

If elections were to be held today, the polls show Liberals are highly likely to win the most seats and form a majority government. The Conservatives, on the other hand, could form a sizeable opposition with roughly as many seats as they won in the last election, but the Bloc and NDP would likely see their seat share shrinking significantly.  

There are 343 federal ridings - also called constituencies or electoral districts -across Canada. Each has a corresponding seat in the lower chamber-- the House of Commons. All seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs during the election. For a parliamentary majority, any party need to win at least 172 seats.

Per current projection, the Liberals are likely to win 196 seats, while 122 seats could go in the Conservatives' favour. The share of the Bloc and NDP seems to be shrinking to 19 and 5 seats, respectively. 

At the time of dissolution of the Parliament, the Liberal Party, which has been in power since 2015, held 153 seats. The Conservatives were the official opposition with 120 seats, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 33 seats, and the NDP at 24.

The set projection shows that there is an 86 per cent probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the election, while there is just one per cent chance of the Conservatives achieving the feat. 

There is also a 12 per cent possibility that Liberals will win the most seats but not a majority, but only one per cent odds are in the Conservatives' favour of winning most seats. 

How Support Shifted 

The public support has changed over time as the Conservatives held a significant lead in the polls from the summer of 2023 to the beginning of 2025. However, the support for Liberals skyrocketed after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned and his replacement, Mark Carney, took charge. The Mark Carney government's strong stand against US President Donald Trump and his tariffs also influenced voters in the Liberals' favour. 

The party made further progress during the first week of the campaign, largely at the expense of the NDP and the Bloc, but since then, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives has held relatively steady.

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