US trade tensions take centre stage as Liberals gain ground in Canada’s federal election
As advance polling opens for the 2025 Canadian Federal Election today, the political landscape is charged with unexpected twists, dramatic shifts, and new leaders stepping into the spotlight. At the heart of this electoral saga is the Liberal Party’s resurgence — a comeback story driven by fresh leadership and shifting voter sentiments, all against the backdrop of escalating tensions with the United States.
Not long ago, the Conservatives seemed destined for victory. Riding high on a 20-point lead through 2024 and the early months of 2025, their path appeared clear. But politics is rarely predictable. The turning point came with Justin Trudeau’s resignation, paving the way for Mark Carney to take the helm of the Liberal Party. Carney’s arrival was more than a leadership change; it was a catalyst that reshaped the political narrative.
Carney’s reputation as a seasoned economist and strategic thinker injected new energy into the Liberals’ campaign. His leadership quickly reversed the party’s declining fortunes, eroding the Conservative lead with each passing month. By April 2025, the once-distant race had transformed into a tight contest with the Liberals edging ahead. Mainstreet Research’s April 17 poll now places the Liberals at 43.5% support with 183 projected seats, compared to the Conservatives’ 40% and 135 seats — giving the Liberals a striking 72.6% chance of securing a majority government. Carney’s competence in economic affairs, especially in navigating trade tensions with the US, has become his defining strength.
The rivalry between Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre extends beyond party lines. A Nanos Research poll reveals Carney’s dominance in a critical area: US trade negotiations. When voters were asked who they trusted more to handle these sensitive talks, Carney outpaced Poilievre by a significant margin (40% to 26%). This issue alone has shaped much of the election discourse, as Canada grapples with the economic ripple effects of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs.
Meanwhile, the surge in Liberal support has left the New Democratic Party (NDP) struggling to maintain relevance. Jagmeet Singh, once seen as a dynamic leader, now faces declining support, with polls showing the NDP hovering between 5-9% nationally. The CBC tracker places them at just 8.5%, a precarious position that threatens their official party status. Singh’s close alliance with Trudeau during contentious times, coupled with controversies surrounding his alleged sympathies toward Khalistani separatism, alienated key voter segments, particularly in the Indian diaspora. India also views Jagmeet as the man who pushed Trudeau to make unsubstantiated allegations regarding involvement of Indian officials in the killing of Khalistan ideologue Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Geographically, the Liberal wave is sweeping through Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives hold a slight advantage in British Columbia. Political analysts point to Carney’s ability to project strength and stability, particularly amid economic uncertainty and nationalistic fervour, as the driving force behind the Liberals’ regional successes.
Yet, this election isn’t just about leaders — it’s about the issues that weigh on Canadians’ minds. While domestic challenges like housing affordability (36%), healthcare (28%), immigration (14%), taxes (18%), and inflation (13%) are pivotal, it’s the overwhelming presence of US President Trump’s policies that dominate the conversation. His tariffs and annexation threats have pushed national sovereignty.
Diaspora