Europe’s waning clout in Russia-Ukraine war

Since February 2022, the longest and deadliest Europe-origin post-World War-II Russia-Ukraine bloodshed has been raging, ruining millions of lives, livelihoods and economics. It has divided the world, especially the West, more than ever before owing to the sensational reversal of the traditional anti-Russia policy of sanction, boycott and diplomatic isolation adopted by US President Donald Trump. Trump’s direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, bypassing the 50-odd nations of Europe (including the 27-nation European Union) and Ukraine, have irked the West the most.

Understandably, both the EU and non-EU London, the trusted ally of Washington since the 1940s, are unimpressed. The direct Trump-Putin link sans Europe constitutes a snub to the old West and has severely jolted its status and stature in world polity. The West (Europe) has become irrelevant in its own eyes, being cut to size by two non-Europeans. The US as a geographical non-Europe is understood, but why and how is the pariah Russia non-Europe? It is because the Big Four (London, Paris, Berlin, Rome) don’t like considering Russia a European state. To them, Russia is “Eurasian" because its bigger portion falls in Asia. Hence, racially, Russia is Slav and does not come up to the standard of the victors of heartland Europe. Russia is in the periphery, a fringe element prying and trying to be gregarious with the ‘gorgeous Anglo-Saxons’.

In the eyes of mainland Europe, Russia is lowly and an outcast. Yet, that lowly and pariah Moscow suddenly stands more close to Washington than the ‘sophisticated and upper crest of Anglo-Saxon club’ members of the old imperialist powers. Europe’s war cannot be resolved without its participation in the conference room, say London, Berlin and Paris. Hence, a restless EU is hopping from summit to summit. London, Brussels, Paris, Munich are busy hosting 30 to 50 nations, whose conspicuous pretension revolves around ending the 38-month-old war, which has already damaged the economy, destabilised the established government and created racial tension. The Grand Europe is on the wane towards the ground as it gazes from the high table.

In the eyes of EU leaders, therefore, Europe has to be revived, defended and taken care of solely with the gun; and who else but the Germans to do the job? Post World War II, the Germans were war-wary, dormant and sullen. How profound is their transformation now? Wanting to be in the forefront of the combined armed forces operating in the war-ravaged Ukraine, Germany is toying with the idea of providing the long-range Taurus missile to Kiev and deploying troops in states bordering Russia. This is a bad omen. It can be construed to be a prelude to the repeat provocation of history’s murderous assault of Germany’s Hitler in 1941.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict, without doubt, has been a shadow proxy war between Russia and the West, led by the USA. With the sudden American exit from the NATO-EU team confronting Russia through Ukraine, the burden of European defence has swung from Washington to the EU’s Warsaw, which is bent on the continuation of fire, rather than ceasefire.

The moot point, nevertheless, is that in the midst of such a bellicose European stand on the Russia-Ukraine war, not a single non-warring European country will be able to take the rate of fatality which both Russia and Ukraine are facing. Let us peruse the figures of Military Balance 2025 (International Institute for Strategic Studies, London). Will Germany be able to accept the death of 20,000 men when its entire army today consists of 60,650 soldiers? Incidentally, in 2005, its strength was 1,17,900 and it was deployed in 13 overseas destinations. Today, it is reduced to a few hundred soldiers in seven stations. Similarly, the British PM appears to be vocal on doing a joint European force tour of Ukraine as some sort of “peace-keeping" duty inside Ukraine to deter future Moscow aggression. Again, the reduced number of the Royal Army is too conspicuous to be missed: from a 2,77,560-strong army in 2005, it has come down to 78,800. Will the famed Royal troops be able to replenish the loss of 30,000 soldiers the way Moscow and Kiev have been coping for last 38 months?

These are the numbers of the big two powers only. France is an exception. Paris has traditionally been different owing to its linguistic pride and it being culturally different from the English-speaking London-Washington’s special relationship. However, Europe also has several tiny nations for which even the death of 2,000 soldiers each will be the end of their army. In 2005, Estonia had 4,934 active soldiers, Latvia 1,817 and Lithuania 11,510. The numbers thereof today stand at 1,300 combatants for Estonia, 1,500 for Latvia and 10,250 for Lithuania.

Post the 1991 USSR breakup, Europe drastically reduced its combatants, neglected defence factories and the robust aviation industry and lowered warship yard production. The US-led NATO and EU expanded the economics and extended the politico-diplomatic geography towards the Russian underbelly through a fresh induction of former Moscow allies and satellite states into NATO.

Consequently, Russia rightly felt threatened and couldn’t wait for a possible breach of its last frontier of Ukraine falling into the lap of NATO. War became inevitable and its disastrous results are there for all to see.

Yet, the West hasn’t learnt the lessons of history. War is necessary for the revival of its arms industry and using Ukraine as the sole frontline coffins, which cannot be fought by the rest of Europe owing to the inevitable colossal loss of manpower of the already diminishing demography of white Christians.

Be that as it may, one thing is certain. Post the Russia-Ukraine war, the borders and geography of the war zone are bound to undergo monumental changes. There could emerge several beneficiaries of the parcelled out Kiev land as both Russia and the USA today are reportedly talking about the “partition of Ukraine."

Will the EU stare and endure this happening? The scenario is murky and hazy. The continuation of violence appears more than a possibility.

Comments