After Short Patch-Up, Paswan Chacha-Bhatija Return To Poll Battle. Will It Impact Bihar Elections?
You cannot take your eyes off Bihar politics even for a second. You blink and there is a development that could upend an entire election result, or change a leader's political destiny. While Nitish Kumar's U-turns to hang on to power is famous across the country, another on-off relationship has come to the fore, and this could impact the Bihar elections, especially the Dalit vote base.
Pashupati Paras's decision to pull out of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance could spell trouble for his nephew and Narendra Modi's "Hanuman" Chirag Paswan. Paras, who had been feeling sidelined and ignored in the NDA for some time now, decided to break up and forge his own destiny as a "Dalit icon".
While it is still not clear if he would contest the Bihar elections on his own or in alliance with the Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance, Paras's exit is likely to impact the Dalit vote base in Bihar.
RLJP Pushed Out Of Limelight By Modi's 'Hanuman'
Pashupati Paras's RLJP was sidelined within the NDA even before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The reason? "Modi's Hanuman", as Paras's nephew and the Lok Janashakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief had famously referred to himself in 2020.
The family feud began when Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Paras set their eyes on the reins of the Lok Janshakti Party. Both wanted the right to Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy. However, the party couldn't bear the tension and broke into two — Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (led by Pashupati Paras) and the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).
Though the relationship fell apart in 2021, the two stayed together as part of the NDA.
However, the fight for the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat before the 2024 elections distanced the two further. Paras, the incumbent Hajipur MP then, wanted to contest the seat again. At the same time, Chirag Paswan wanted the right to carry on his father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy from the Hajipur seat.
Eventually, Paras, who was a minister in the Modi Cabinet, resigned from his post after being sidelined in the seat-sharing talks. Not only did the BJP prefer Chirag Paswan for the Hajipur seat, but it also pushed Paras out of the seat-sharing talks altogether, not allotting him even one seat.
Cut to the Bihar election seat-sharing talks, Paras was again reportedly sidelined by the NDA, with the RLJP not getting an invitation to the seat-sharing discussions ahead of the Bihar elections.
Search For Ram Vilas Paswan's Dalit Icon Legacy
Accusing the BJP and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of pursuing anti-Dalit policies, Paras finally walked out of the NDA in a huff on Monday. He also said Lalu Yadav was an old friend and he would consider joining the Mahagathbandhan if he was accorded proper respect.
The move signalled a dual purpose: First, Pashupati Paras seems to be eyeing the 'Dalit icon' status once held by his brother Ram Vilas Paswan. Second, he seems to have realised it would be difficult to survive Bihar politics without allies and is signalling a friendship with his "old friend".
Paras has essentially been rendered toothless by the BJP. Having lost several leaders of the undivided LJP and, eventually, the Hajipur seat to his nephew in the NDA, Pashupati is now looking to capitalise on his image as a ground-level Dalit leader. Paras has no MLA in the Bihar Assembly, nor does he have any MP. He only has a lone MLC.
Impact On Dalit Votes
The Mahagathbandhan will be cautious in welcoming Paras into its folds, as the inclusion of RLJP would mean a division of seats. However, the RLJP could prove to be a double-edged sword as well as a boon for the Mahagathbandhan. As many as 23 castes are recognised as Dalits, and 21 among them are termed 'Mahadalits' to identify as the most deprived castes.
Despite a division in seat allocation, the Mahagathbandhan will have a prominent Dalit face holding its hand. The BJP is known to consolidate Hindu upper caste votes, and Nitish Kumar and Jitan Ram Manjhi's (Hindustan Awam Morcha) have a set voter base comprising the backward class votes.
In the Mahagathbandhan, Lalu Prasad Yadav will be banking on Muslim and Yadav votes. However, anticipating a division of Muslim votes courtesy Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, the RJD Muslims, Yadavs, Bahujans, Agda (forward castes), Aadhi Abaadi (women) and the poor under its MY-BAAP ('master' in English) campaign.
However, the campaign covers nearly 80% of Bihar's population and is diluted. Morever, Mayawati's BSP is likely to divide the Bhaujan votes. The only hope was the unity of the RJD and the Congress. However, even that image took a hit when Rahul Gandhi in January hit out at the Mahagathbandhan government of 2023 over its "fake caste census".
In such circumstances, the inclusion of Paras, who has been a seven-time MLA and also a minister in the central and Bihar governments, in the Mahagathbandhan could just help the Opposition counter Chirag Paswan and Manjhi's influence and consolidate at least Dalit votes.
What Is The Caste Equation In Bihar?
As per the controversial caste census of 2023, backward classes comprise 63.13% and the upper caste population is only 15.52%. Other Backward Classes comprise 27.12% among the backward class category, while the Extremely Backward Class population numbered 36%.
Dalits, categorised as Scheduled Castes, comprise almost 19.65% of Bihar's population. Yadavs, who are categorised as OBCs, account for 14.26% of the total population of Bihar among the castes. CM Nitish Kumar's Kurmi caste, also categorised as OBC, is 2.87% of the population.
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