Caste survey leak

The recent leak of Karnataka’s caste survey has ignited a political firestorm. The data indicates that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) make up 45 per cent and Muslims 13 per cent of the state’s population. This challenges the prevailing assumptions about demographic dominance. The report recommends a reservation hike — OBCs from 32 per cent to 51 per cent and Muslims to 8 per cent — pushing the total proposed quota to a staggering 75 per cent.

The backlash has been swift. Dominant communities like Lingayats and Vokkaligas, who are politically central to Karnataka’s power dynamics, now find themselves relegated to the third and fourth in the population ranking. This threatens their hold on political patronage and representation, especially as they currently enjoy a disproportionate share of electoral and institutional influence. Politically, the Congress stands divided. While Chief Minister Siddaramaiah appears keen to use the data to deepen social justice politics and consolidate backward caste support, others within the party — especially those with links to dominant castes — fear a backlash ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, too, finds itself in a quandary. Opposing the report could alienate OBC voters, but supporting it might cost the support of its Lingayat base.

There is also the looming legal question of breaching the 50 per cent cap on reservations laid down by the Supreme Court. Without a constitutional amendment or judicial reinterpretation, the suggested hike remains on shaky ground. Above all, the leak raises a fundamental question — why has such a crucial document not been released for over a year? Transparency must guide governance. Suppressing or selectively releasing data to suit political narratives only deepens distrust. Karnataka now stands at a crossroads: between reaffirming old caste hierarchies and pushing for a restructured social contract. Whichever path it chooses will likely echo far beyond the state’s borders.

Editorials