See some short-term volatility, but not a time to panic: Tradejini COO Trivesh D. on investing in current uncertainty

Equity markets have been in a tailspin ever since US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on as many as 60 countries. The worry is the rising chance of the US and possibly the world economy falling into a recession.

On Monday, the BSE Sensex crashed close to 3,000 points (around 4 per cent) and the NSE Nifty 50 fell over 900 points, tracking a sharp fall in global markets. Trivesh D. the chief operating officer at Tradejini shared his thoughts the current market uncertainty, how investors can navigate it and his sectoral preferences among other things...

Q/ There was a brief recovery in the market in March, but we see it correcting again in the wake of Trump's tariffs. What's your view on the market now?

A/ Following the announcement of US tariffs on 60 countries, including India, by US President Trump, markets opened lower and triggered a global selloff. The Indian market has been volatile since September 2024, so this was a natural reaction, especially in sectors that were more likely to experience the most pressure to tariff.

There have been periodic downturns, but nothing yet matches a positive trend. The January-March quarter results, when they come out, will probably allow some optimism, but we will just have to wait. Investors should remain cautious, wait for clearer signals, and rethink realistic returns from an expected 40-50 per cent to a more reasonable 12-15 per cent.

Q/ How should market investors navigate this phase?

A/ In recent times, many investors concluded that the markets would only go up. The latest correction, influenced by Trump's tariff moves, has challenged that view. While there may indeed be some short-term volatility, but not a time to panic.

These corrections are a natural part of a long-term investing philosophy, especially for those investors who have been investing in recent years. Investors have had a good share of forays into new highs and sharp declines. So at times like this when markets fall due to the Trump factor, It is advisable to focus on disciplined equity investing in high-quality companies and stocks in order to recover your losses. Over time, you will grow your wealth.

Q/ What are your sectoral preferences post the tariffs announcement and the impact it will have?

A/ The recent announcement of a reciprocal tariff by the Trump administration could reshape sectoral dynamics for India. Interestingly, this move may actually work in India’s favour in certain areas. For instance, the apparel and textile sector stands to benefit as the U.S. looks to diversify sourcing away from China and Vietnam. With India already holding a 6 per cent market share in the US, lower tariffs could improve our competitiveness.

Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, remain largely unaffected. The US has exempted Indian pharma exports from these new tariffs, which is significant given that nearly a third of India’s $9 billion pharmaceutical exports go to the US. This continuity ensures stable trade in a key sector without any added cost pressures. 

Q/ Over the last year, there has been a lot of regulatory tightening as far as F&O trading is concerned. What impact has this and the market volatility had on trading activity across the industry as well as on your platform? 

A/ Trading activity has certainly shifted over the past year due to regulatory tightening in the F&O segment and ongoing market volatility. Overall market turnover has taken a hit—cash market turnover is down 30–50 per cent, and derivatives turnover has dropped 31 per cent since its June 2024 peak.

Brokerage revenue from orders has also fallen. Client acquisition has slowed, and with uncertainty looming, some investors are reallocating funds, while others prefer to hold cash and wait for clearer market signals.

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