Geopolitical fault lines in the Northeast

Media reports on Wednesday quoted statements attributed to Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh, which he reportedly made during his recent visit to China. He has imagined and projected the landlocked seven sisters (our Northeastern states) along with Bangladesh as an extension of the Chinese economy, with Bangladesh and its ports playing a pivotal role. With these remarks, he is trying to leverage the geographical situation prevailing in the Chicken’s Neck area (also known as the Siliguri Corridor), a narrow strip of land in West Bengal’s Siliguri that connects the Northeast and the rest of India.

Yunus is trying to add a new dimension to this problem, I am certain that the Government of India must have already taken cognisance and strategised ways to meet such a contingency.

The pivot in the Bangladesh-India relations post Sheikh Hasina — from being a friendly neighbour and ally to an almost adversarial position — does speak of the emerging politics in that country and the influence the ISI is having in it. Pakistan has not forgotten 1971 (when it lost Eastern Pakistan) or, for that matter, its failed attempts in Kashmir.

My objective here is to highlight the situation inside our Northeast. Newspapers on Wednesday also reported a statement purportedly made by former CM of Manipur Biren Singh while sharing a video of the late PA Sangma (his 2014 speech in Parliament) favouring Kuki land and other smaller states in the region. Biren said that similar attempts were being made today to interfere in Manipur’s internal affairs to destabilise the state.

The CM of Meghalaya, Conrad Sangma, has reacted to the statement and defended his father. I have gone to lengths to bring out the likely role of Bangladesh (and Pakistan) in the future and our own internal strife (given the intemperate statements being made by people who have held important positions or are holding them).

Till 2023 and the start of violence in Manipur, peace had prevailed in the Northeast after decades of unrest and violence. There was a ceasefire in Nagaland and elected governments were in place in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura and Manipur.

The Government of India has done an admirable job with the help of the army, security forces and police in bringing peace to the area and the restoration of the democratic process. The interaction and integration between the Northeast and the rest of India has improved and people of the area are going to other parts for studies and employment. Tourism has also begun to grow green shoots.

However, an unfortunate Manipur High Court ruling recommended that the state government should move the GoI to include the dominant Meiteis as a Scheduled Tribe and, thereby, allowed for affirmative action (also implying the opening of purchase of land in the hills by outsiders). Knowing the potential of harm likely to be caused by the ruling, the state government should have taken immediate steps to challenge the ruling through judicial means (it could have easily done so).

The hill tribes, fearing loss of land and identity due to the anticipated influx of outsiders, reacted on a massive and sometimes violent scale. Unfortunately, the matter was not handled properly at the state level and the situation was allowed to descend into unrest and violence. The people of the valley and the hills clashed in large numbers and police armouries were looted and many arms were taken away (most of which have not been recovered). The army and the paramilitary forces were not used aptly and the police were not up to it.

Now, some kind of peace has been restored, but the social fabric has been torn asunder and silence is the only dialogue. The hill people have not been able to go back to their old way of life.

We are sitting on a powder keg, which one volatile statement can set off. The process of dialogue between the communities and the government was not initiated in the early stages and the state government opted to use strong-arm methods, which failed.

The situation in the Northeast requires political acumen and statesmanship of the highest order. We should not wait for the situation to escalate and then try to douse the fires. I would like to take just a passing glance at the other states.

Mizoram has been quiet for long, but now some ominous signs are visible. As reported in the press, the Government of India had asked Mizoram to not take in Rohingya refugees from Myanmar and set up camps for them. However, reportedly, Mizoram has gone about and established these camps. Similarly, the Mizoram government was asked to not take in refugees from Manipur and set up camps. However, they’ve taken in people and set up camps. These are not good omens.

Meghalaya is also sympathetic to the cause of the hill tribes of Manipur and so is Nagaland.

The Northeast now needs a relook, a revaluation. These states have always had fault lines along tribal and religious grounds. The tribes are spread across the seven states and the concerns of these tribes of Manipur resonate in Meghalaya and Nagaland. Thus, what happens in one state affects the others. Myanmar has historically had violent interactions with Manipur and Mizoram. This is likely to escalate in the wake of the refugee crisis.

Bangladesh appears to be itching to be a player in this area and China would need to be kept in mind while evolving the strategy. During this period of strife in Manipur, the underground has become active in both Manipur and Mizoram, border crossings have increased as also smuggling. In the aftermath of the earthquake, there is likely to be more movement from Myanmar of both people and the underground. Border management will have to improve.

All in all, the situation in the Northeast, both external and internal, needs to be closely monitored at the highest levels and decisions taken. Regular strategic management of these situations should not be left to the state level because their vision is limited. Time is of the essence and the need is for policy which lays down clear objectives, strategies to meet them and ways and means to implement the plans.

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