Trump 2.0 will follow a tough policy towards China
There has been some mixed and contradictory signalling from Washington since the Trump 2.0 administration took over in January 2025 on whether it would follow a softer policy towards China to seek a “grand bargain" in pursuit of its political and economic interests. During his confirmation hearing as new Assistant Secretary for Defence, Elbridge Colby had also stated that though Taiwan was “very important" to the USA, it was not an “existential interest."
President Trump increased tariffs from 10 per cent to 20 per cent on the import of Chinese goods even as he went at length in extolling his personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jingping. He directed his Justice Department to not enforce a law banning Chinese social media app TikTok (on which Trump has 14 million followers and which American billionaire Elon Musk wants to buy) and welcomed more Chinese investment in the country.
The numerous initiatives taken by the Trump administration show that President Trump intends to take a tough approach towards China, like Trump 1.0. For instance, Trump is actually shifting the US priority from Europe to the Indo-Pacific (IP) by telling the Europeans that they have to take charge of their own security and Ukraine would have to pay for whatever assistance it had got from the USA in the past. He has ruled out any substantive US military assistance to Ukraine.
Trump has also taken a hard line against the neighbouring countries such as Canada and Mexico — which China has co-opted for local manufacturing and assembling to dump its cheap goods in the USA — by insisting that they must buy from the USA to eliminate the trade deficit. They, too, have been slammed with higher tariffs.
The Trump administration has criticised the increasing Chinese influence on the Hong Kong-based Hutchinson group of companies which control the Panama Canal, which was built with US assistance. Though China has blocked the bid of the US-based Blackrock group to buy these companies, Trump has stated that it would ultimately take over control of the Panama Canal by military means, if necessary.
Now that the ice in the Arctic Ocean has started melting rapidly and it is emerging as a shorter trade route from Europe to China than the Atlantic, the Trump administration has conveyed its interest in taking over Greenland, which occupies a pivotal position in the strategic control of this trade route.
Trump has unequivocally come out in support of Israel and told Iran in clear terms that it would not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. The USA has stationed its B-2 bombers at its Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities to back up its firm resolve. Using Israel’s success in undercutting the influence of the Iranian proxies in West Asia, Trump appears keen to eliminate Iran’s influence in the region further.
On Taiwan itself, a number of small but significant changes have been made by the Trump administration. Earlier this month, the State Department edited its website to remove the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence" from its page on the USA-Taiwan relations, which China took note of and criticised. Chief Executive of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company CC Wei appeared in the White House with Trump earlier this month and announced a $100-billion investment in the USA. On March 28, Taiwan’s Deputy Defence Minister Alex Po attended a ceremony in South Carolina for the handover of F-16V jetfighters as part of a $8-billion purchase deal.
Alaska’s Governor recently visited Taiwan to sell natural gas to energy-starved Taiwan. The Trump administration sailed two naval ships through the Taiwan Strait. Trump has maintained the US strategic ambiguity and kept China guessing about his plans to intervene in Taiwan. American military trainers have continued their training activities in Taiwan. The Pentagon circulated earlier this month an interim internal guidance document, calling for a more robust deterrence of China to defend Taiwan against an invasion. Marc Rubio, US Secretary of State, in an interview recently reaffirmed the traditional position that “the status of Taiwan should not be changed by force, extortion or compelled in any way."
The Trump administration has taken steps to strengthen relations with the key countries in the Indo-Pacific which could be useful in the eventuality of a conflict with China. A meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers was held in Washington immediately after the taking over of President Trump in January 2025. A Quad Leaders’ Summit is expected to be held in India later this year. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently visited the Philippines and Japan and assured them that the USA was committed to their security against Chinese aggression. The USA and Japan agreed to upgrade the military command in Japan to a new “war fighting headquarters", jointly produce Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles and SM-6, Surface-to-Air Missiles.
The Trump administration is working on holding a summit-level meeting with China shortly to work out a deal on critical political and economic issues. The latter may include issues related to imports from the USA, market access, subsidies, exchange rate, fentanyl, TikTok and political issues like ending the Ukraine war, Iran, Taiwan and others. If this agreement works out, it may reduce tariffs and sanctions on China, encourage more Chinese investment in the USA, people-to-people exchanges and other cooperative measures. If the deal does not work, the USA would resume its tough rhetoric on China, with the deployment of more American military ships, aircraft and personnel in the region.
The Trump administration appears determined to intensify its competition and rivalry with China, thwart the latter’s escalating grip on global manufacturing, technological and military ascendance and strengthen its own global dominance.
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