India crushes Pakistan without firing a shot; PM Modi uses smart diplomatic moves that will jeopardise…, deepen crisis that will…
New Delhi: Pakistan’s already struggling economy has been further rattled by the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and shutting down of the Attari-Wagah border following the Pahalgam terror attack. Now, Pakistan is witnessing mounting pressure across critical sectors including agriculture, health, fertiliser supply, and access to vital water resources.
Pakistan gets about 80% of the water of western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab through the now-suspended IWT that flow through India into Pakistan, whereas India’s share from the eastern rivers, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej is 20%. Hence, the suspension of the IWT will hit Pakistan way more than India.
Agricultural crisis
Agriculture in Pakistan contributes around 20% to its GDP and employs over 38% of its labour force. More than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and around a third of its hydropower generation depend on the waters of the Indus basin.
Following the suspension of the IWT, India said that it might restrict or divert waters from Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej for exclusive Indian use. Even a marginal reduction in river flow could cripple irrigation cycles in key agricultural belts like Punjab and Sindh, which depend heavily on the Indus system for crops such as wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane.
The Punjab province alone accounts for 77% of Pakistan’s wheat production, Sindh contributes 15%, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa accounts for about 5%, and Balochistan 3.5%, according to US Department of Agriculture data (2015–2018 averages. Pakistan’s wheat belt is crisscrossed by rivers like the Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej, all of which originate in India. This means any reduction or disruption in water flow would severely impact over three-fourths of Pakistan’s wheat output.
Districts along the Indus and its tributaries, including areas around Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Multan, and Bahawalpur, report the highest wheat production levels (ranging between 450 to 1,200 thousand metric tons).
Food prices in Pakistan are already soaring due to internal economic woes. Any shock to agriculture output, especially wheat, the staple food, will further fuel inflation, deepen poverty, and create rural unrest. It could also force Pakistan to import grains, straining its fragile foreign exchange reserves.
Medicine shortages; health crisis
Pakistani health authorities have initiated emergency measures to secure pharmaceutical supplies. Currently, Islamabad relies on India for 30-40 per cent of its pharmaceutical raw materials, including Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and advanced therapeutic products. Critical life-saving drugs for cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and antibiotics were sourced from Indian manufacturers due to their affordability and quality.
India’s department of pharmaceuticals has requested the pharma exports body to prepare a list of medicines and pharmaceutical products exported to Pakistan.
Reports suggest that Drug Regulator Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) is exploring alternative sources in China, Russia and several European countries.
The country could witness shortage of vital medicines if immediate steps are not taken. The shortage of medicines will inevitably lead to a surge in prices, making essential healthcare unaffordable for a large segment of the Pakistani population.
Fertiliser shortage
India has historically been a major supplier of DAP (Di-ammonium phosphate) and urea, critical fertilisers for Pakistan’s major crops. The trade suspension by Pakistan means it must now seek more expensive imports from Gulf countries, China, or Central Asia. This will further strain Pakistan’s economy.
News