How suspending Indus Waters Treaty will affect Pakistan

In 2018, a study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) painted a rather disturbing picture of a nearby future with people fighting over access to water. According to the study, “five most vulnerable hotspots included the Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Indus, Tigris-Euphrates, and Colorado rivers”.

Effects of climate change, combined with an ever-increasing number of people, are expected to only increase the competition for the scarce resource, according to the study.

“The paper pointed to several hotspots in the world where ‘hydro-political issues’ are more likely to flare up. Not surprisingly, these are areas having problems with accessing fresh water and where a ‘trans-boundary’ to water exists. That means the people in that area share some body of water, like a lake or a river. So in times of scarcity due to environmental factors and growing population, the water resources become thin and tensions result,” said the World Economic Forum.

Water wars      

According to experts, wars over oil shaped the 20th century history. However, most 21st century conflicts will be over water.

“I ask (myself) if in this piecemeal third world war that we are living through, are we not moving towards a great world war for water?” late Pope Francis was also quoted as saying.

Water is vital for survival, preserving healthy ecosystems, socio-economic growth, energy, food, practically every aspect of life.

Worries over the most precious natural resources have been increasing due to climate change and global warming. Given the value of the finite, non-substitutable natural resource, the Indus Waters Treaty assumes even greater significance.

For Pakistan (a downstream country) “it is the most important treaty, a matter of life and death,” says Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.

After the horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam on Tuesday, India on Wednesday suspended the treaty governing water sharing of six rivers in the Indus basin between the two countries.

According to provisions of the treaty — that has survived wars and decades of conflicts and cross-border terrorism against India by Pakistan — all water of “eastern rivers” of the Indus system — Sutlej, Beas and Ravi — shall be available for the “unrestricted use” of India.

Pakistan, meanwhile, shall receive water from the “western rivers” — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

What happens now? 

Thakkar says the “strategic and symbolic” decision to suspend the IWT will give more options on how to use the waters of the Indus river system in future.

For starters, India can immediately stop sharing water flow/flood data with Pakistan.

The treaty requires India to share hydrological data with Pakistan. The data is crucial for flood forecasting and planning for irrigation, hydropower, drinking water etc.

It can also stop visits by Pakistani officials to hydroelectric projects currently under construction in J&K — the Kishenganga HEP on Kishenganga, a tributary of Jhelum, and the Ratle HEP on Chenab.

The two projects have been a bone of contention between the two countries. India is also seeking “modification” of the treaty in mind for future needs.

Even though they are “run-of-the-river” projects generating electricity without obstructing the natural flow, Pakistan is objecting to the two projects.

The suspension of the treaty may not have an immediate impact on the flow of water to Pakistan as India currently does not have the infrastructure to stop the flow or divert it for its own use. However, now there is no stopping it from planning in future, say experts.

“India can create storage on the Western rivers and also revive the Tulbul project, it can stop sharing data on project and documents, do silt flushing anytime instead of designated months,” explains Thakkar.

The Tulbul project was suspended in 1987 after Pakistan raised objections. Also known as the Wular Barrage, Tulbul is a navigation lock-cum-control structure located on the Jhelum at the mouth of Wular Lake.

Pakistan claims that it violates the Indus Water Treaty; India, however, says the project is a navigation facility and permitted under the treaty.

India has also been pushing for a review and modification of the treaty, citing changing needs from irrigation and drinking water to hydropower, according to reports.

Being upstream, India also has the geographic advantage but it is not easy to block huge amounts of water during high-flow periods.

The existing hydropower plants are mostly run-of-the-river projects for generating electricity without holding back huge volumes of water. Some say that India is not even fully utilising even its 20 per cent share of the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus waters permitted under the treaty.

But it can begin controlling the flow with existing and potential infrastructure, the impact of which can be felt during the dry season. It can also flush silt from reservoirs without prior warning, potentially causing damage downstream.

However, if an upstream country does not treat a downstream country well, it should remember that it too may be downstream for another country as in the Brahmaputra basin. But given the situation, the issue (IWT) is only expected to escalate, says Thakkar.

Top News