When water becomes a weapon: India’s treaty suspension hits Pakistan hard

On April 23, 2025, India announced a bold decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 65-year-old agreement with Pakistan that governs how the two countries share the waters of the Indus River system. This move came a day after a horrific terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, where 26 people, mostly tourists, were killed. India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, linked the attack to Pakistan-based groups and decided to suspend the treaty until Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism. But what does this mean for both countries, especially Pakistan? Let’s break it down in simple terms.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, is like a rulebook for sharing the water of six rivers—Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—between India and Pakistan. The World Bank helped broker this deal after years of talks. Under the treaty:

– India gets full control over the three “Eastern Rivers” (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).

– Pakistan gets most of the water from the three “Western Rivers” (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), but India can use them for things like hydropower and limited irrigation.

– About 80% of the Indus system’s water goes to Pakistan, while India gets 20%.

This treaty has been a rare success story, surviving three wars (1965, 1971, and Kargil in 1999) and many tensions. It ensures Pakistan’s agriculture, which depends heavily on these rivers, gets enough water.

Why did India pause the Treaty?

The Pahalgam attack was a tipping point. India’s government says it has proof of “cross-border linkages,” meaning the attackers were supported by Pakistan. The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by PM Modi, decided to hit back hard. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that the treaty is “on hold” until Pakistan stops backing terrorism. India also closed the Attari-Wagah border, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and banned Pakistani nationals from entering India.

This isn’t the first time India has raised concerns about the treaty. Last year, India asked for a review, citing Pakistan’s misuse of the treaty and India’s need for more water for clean energy and development. But suspending it entirely is a huge step, something India has never done before.

How does this affect Pakistan?

Pakistan’s economy and survival depend on the Indus River system. Here’s how the pause could hurt them:

1. Agriculture in Crisis: Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces, its agricultural heartlands, rely on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for irrigation. About 80% of Pakistan’s farmland depends on these rivers. If India restricts water flow, crops like wheat, rice, and cotton could fail, leading to food shortages and higher prices.
2. Water Scarcity: Pakistan is already facing a water crisis. Blocking or reducing water from the Western Rivers could make drinking water scarce, especially in rural areas. Cities like Karachi and Lahore could face even bigger problems.
3. Economic Fallout: Agriculture employs nearly half of Pakistan’s workforce and makes up a big chunk of its economy. A water cutoff could lead to job losses, poverty, and economic instability. Pakistan’s exports, like textiles, could also take a hit.
4. Power Shortages : Pakistan uses river water for hydropower. Less water could mean more power cuts, which are already a problem in the country.

What does it mean for India?

For India, pausing the treaty is a strong message to Pakistan: terrorism has consequences. It also gives India more control over the Western Rivers. For example:

– India can now build dams or store water on the Jhelum and Chenab without treaty restrictions, helping with flood control and irrigation in Jammu and Kashmir.

– It strengthens India’s position as the upper riparian (upstream) country, giving it leverage over Pakistan.

But there are risks for India too:

– International Backlash: The World Bank, a treaty signatory, might raise concerns. Other countries could see India’s move as aggressive, affecting its global image.

– Escalation with Pakistan: Pakistan could retaliate, maybe through international courts or by escalating tensions along the border.

– Legal Issues : The treaty has no exit clause, so suspending it might lead to legal challenges. Pakistan could demand arbitration, though India’s stance is that terrorism voids the treaty’s spirit.

What happens next?

Pakistan’s leaders are meeting today, April 24, 2025, to plan their response. They might appeal to the World Bank or the United Nations, claiming India’s move is illegal. They could also try to rally international support, though Pakistan’s global isolation might make this tough. Some experts warn that Pakistan’s water crisis could worsen within months, especially during the summer when water demand peaks.

For India, this is a high-stakes gamble. The government is betting that the treaty’s suspension will pressure Pakistan to crack down on terror groups. But it’s also a test of India’s diplomatic skill—can it justify this move to the world while managing tensions with Pakistan?

A Tough but necessary step?

India’s decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty is a bold, emotional response to the Pahalgam tragedy. It shows that India is done tolerating attacks linked to Pakistan. For Pakistan, the consequences could be devastating—its farms, economy, and people depend on the rivers India now holds leverage over. But this move also risks escalating an already tense relationship.

As an Indian, it’s hard not to feel a mix of pride and worry. Pride because our government is taking a stand against terrorism. Worry because water is life, and cutting it off could hurt millions of ordinary Pakistanis who have little to do with their government’s actions. The hope is that this pause pushes Pakistan to rethink its ways, but the road ahead looks bumpy for both nations.

( The author Girish Linganna of this article is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him, at: girishlinganna@gmail.com )

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