Trump Warns Of "Great Danger" If US-Iran Nuclear Talks Do Not Go Well

The United States and Iran are gearing up for a high-stakes diplomatic effort, with talks expected to begin this weekend in Oman. The negotiations come as Iran faces a series of significant setbacks, including military defeats, economic strain, and international pressure, bringing the country to a point of vulnerability after a tumultuous 18 months in the Middle East.

In a surprising move, the decision for the two countries to have a discussion was announced by Trump in the Oval Office along with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this week.

Trump has said that a diplomatic solution is preferable, however, he warned that Iran will be in "great danger" if talks do not go well.

The talks are aimed at finding a pathway to a new nuclear agreement, after the US pulled out of the Obama-era deal during Trump's first term. The deal had placed limits on Iran's nuclear activity, allowing only a small amount of uranium enriched to 3.67%, way below its weapons-grade. Since then, Iran has significantly ramped up its nuclear stock, enough to build multiple nuclear weapons, with some enriched to 60%, very close to the threshold needed for weaponisation. Moreover, the US has imposed new sanctions targeting five entities and an individual, that according to American officials, are involved in Iran's nuclear program.

Current Situation

Iran's military capabilities including its proxy forces, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been weakened by Israeli strikes, and the country's economy remains under heavy strain due to international sanctions. The US has also carried out airstrikes targeting Iran-backed militants in Yemen, further isolating Tehran. Despite these challenges, Iran's leaders are under pressure to find a way to alleviate the economic strain and avoid further conflict.

Talks in Oman

Although there's uncertainty about how the talks in Oman will unfold, Trump has said the negotiations will be direct, however, it is expected to be indirect, with Omani intermediaries carrying messages between the two delegations. The US is seeking a deal that would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, while Iran is looking for relief from sanctions and economic support. According to Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, "His ultimate goal and the ultimate objective is to ensure that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon." She added, "But he's made it very clear to the Iranians, and his national security team will as well, that all options are on the table and Iran has a choice to make. You can agree to President Trump's demand or there will be all hell to pay."

Potential Outcomes

The potential outcomes of the talks are uncertain, but both sides are under pressure to find a solution. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will both be present in Oman, and the talks are expected to be closely watched. National security adviser Mike Waltz has said that the US wants the "full dismantlement" of Iran's nuclear program, saying, "That's enrichment, that is weaponisation, and that is its strategic missile programme." But Trump has left room for negotiations, saying "The only thing that they can't have is a nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters as he met with his Cabinet secretaries Wednesday.

Room for Negotiation

The room for negotiation is limited, but both sides are looking for a way to find common ground. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has pledged that Iran's "not after a nuclear bomb" and has suggested that Tehran could be open to direct American investment in the Islamic Republic if the countries can reach a deal. According to Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, "All eyes are on Oman by Iranians following this very closely and potentially hoping that this would impact the state of the economy."

The talks in Oman represent a critical moment in the diplomatic effort to find a solution to the US-Iran nuclear standoff. While the potential outcomes are uncertain, both sides are under pressure to find a way to alleviate the economic strain and avoid further conflict.
 

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