Landslides can spread from 11% to 21% of Himachal’s area by 2050: IIT-Ropar study

A study conducted by scientists of the IIT-Ropar using mathematical and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models has indicated that landslide incidents in Himachal are likely to grow in the coming decades. it has predicted that landslides that are at present occurring in 11 per cent area of the state can spread to about 21 per cent area by 2050.

The study has highlighted startling facts regarding the ecology of the state. It indicates that the way urbanisation is increasing in the state combined with global warming, 27 per cent of the present snow and ice areas are likely to change into barren land by 2050. It also states that 5 per cent water bodies in the state will change to sparse forestland while 2 per cent water bodies will change to built-up area and crop land. The study has also forecast that the built-up area in the state, which was about 5 per cent of the total area, has increased to about 8 per cent. Around 19 per cent of dense forest in the state will convert into sparse forest and natural vegetation areas.

Reet Kamal Tiwari, one of the scientists of the IIT-Ropar who was party of the study on landslides, says that anthropogenic land use and land cover have made Himachal Pradesh hills more likely to fail. The result shows an increase in sparse forests and natural vegetation, built-up and crop land class and water body classes and a decrease in dense forests, permanent snow and ice and barren land classes.

Due to unplanned urbanisation and increasing pressure of population on hills, anthropogenic activities will likely increase in future, reducing the dense natural evergreen forest cover and further disrupting the ecological balance. Therefore, understanding the landslide mechanism, particularly in the ecologically vulnerable regions of this Indian Himalayan region, is essential for taking necessary sustainable measures to prevent the situation from deteriorating, he adds.

Tiwari says that the Himachal Government should provide more data on open sources so that scientists can study the impact of various climatic and unplanned development taking place in the state. Studies can help the Himachal Government devise policies for sustainable development in the state and their results can be used to revise current land use policies and development of mitigation measures, he adds.

The study has attributed most of the fatal landslides occurring in the state to road construction projects, excessive soil sealing, earthwork, construction, changes in vegetation structure, slope profiles, illegal hill cutting and mining.

It has also indicated that low slope zones are more susceptible to landslides in Himachal as compared to other areas. High temperatures due to climate change are associated with more frequent and intense weather events like heat wave, storms, droughts and flooding, all of which can cause landslides. Preparing natural hazard maps is vital and necessary for urban development planning in the state, the IIT-Ropar scientists have said in the study.

Himachal Tribune