Is Kerala’s bumper catch of small sardines a worrying sign of climate change?

As storms and rising temperatures make the Arabian Sea increasingly unpredictable, fishers along India’s southwest coast are expressing concern over the future of the oil sardine – a long-time staple of their livelihoods. Their latest worry: unusually small sardines landing in large numbers.

Jackson Pollayil, president of the Kerala Swatantra Matsyathozhilali Federation, an independent trade union for fish workers, recently warned that sardines in the state’s coastal waters have dramatically shrunk in size. On March 15, fishers were forced to sell sardines for as little as Rs 18 per kg – less than a tenth of their usual price.

However, this trend may simply reflect an abundance of young fish, according to scientists at the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute. “Since June 2024, breeding and recruitment have been strong,” says Grinson George, the institute’s director, referring to the natural process in which juvenile fish mature into adults. He notes that favourable environmental conditions have led to a large influx of “0-year class” sardines – those spawned within the past year.

Sardines are an iconic species, referred to as kudumbam pularthi (the one that nourishes the family in Malayalam) in Kerala. They are an affordable staple food and a lifeline for local fishers. Fluctuations in sardine catch...

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