Trump’s Bluff or Iran’s Gambit: Who Blinks in the Gulf?
Iran Nuclear Weapons: According to the hard-line Tasnim News Agency, Iran’s top missile official, Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, along with senior Revolutionary Guards commander Alireza Sabahifard, visited the country’s southeastern Air Defense Zone in Bandar Abbas, a port city on the Persian Gulf, on Friday (4th April).
The report stated that the purpose of the visit was to evaluate how ready Iran is for combat and defense operations.
After the inspection, Sabahifard said that Iran’s air defense is strong and steady like a mountain, ready to give a powerful and clear response to any attack or threat.
The visit came after increasing threats from the United States over Iran’s nuclear program. Last week, President Donald Trump warned that Iran must either agree to a new nuclear deal or face a military attack far more powerful and destructive than anything they’ve experienced in the past.
The base inspected by the two commanders is the nearest known Iranian military site to the small island of “Diego Garcia” in the Indian Ocean. This island is where the US military has been gathering a large amount of equipment in a buildup that’s bigger than ever seen before.
Diego Garcia is a British-owned island that belongs to the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). However, it is mainly used by the United States as a key military base through a lease deal with the UK. The island is around 3,500 kilometers (about 2,175 miles) away from Iran’s southeastern border, close to the Gulf of Oman (which borders Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates).
The deployment seems to be a clear show of strength by the United States, possibly hinting at a future attack on Iran. The US military has sent several B-2 bombers (almost 6 bombers), which are specially built to carry powerful 2,000-pound (about 907 kg) bombs. These bombs are believed to be strong enough to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear sites.
Iran has been working on its missile program for many years, developing different types of missiles with various ranges. During two major flare-ups with Israel last year, while the Gaza war was at its peak, Iran fired hundreds of these missiles at Israel.
Although most of the missiles were blocked by US and UK military bases in the Middle East, a few still got through and entered Israeli airspace, landing close to important military sites.
Accurate Missiles and Long-Range Capability
As tensions with the United States continue to grow, Iranian leaders have highlighted their missile strikes on Israel as a successful demonstration of their capabilities. They argue that American military bases and interests in the Middle East are much closer to Iran than Israel or the U.S. itself. This shorter distance, they claim, allows their missiles to be more precise and effective, making these nearby targets more vulnerable to attack.
Iran supports this claim by pointing out the presence of US military bases in countries located near its borders. These include:
- Iraq (shares a border with Iran)
- Bahrain (hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet)
- Kuwait, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates (all within 300–500 km from Iran)
- Oman and Saudi Arabia (both nearby and host US forces)
With these bases within close range, Iran sees them as easier targets in any potential conflict.
In 2020, Iran fired a series of missiles at the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq, where US troops were stationed. This attack was Iran’s response to the US killing of its top military leader, Qasem Soleimani.
Although the attack was carefully planned and didn’t cause any deaths, it stood out because of how accurate the missile strikes were and the serious damage they caused to the buildings and equipment at the base.
Even with the recent increase in military presence, a US attack on Iran doesn’t seem likely at the moment. Instead, it appears that President Trump is using the threat of force to pressure Iran into coming to the table and quickly agreeing to the deal he wants.
Because Iran has air defense bases spread across a large area, the United States would likely need more weapons, aircraft, and troops if it ever decides to carry out a major attack. Such a strike would aim to seriously damage Iran’s nuclear sites and military bases to prevent it from quickly fighting back.
Whether the United States will go beyond showing strength and actually prepare for a full war mostly depends on how Iran reacts to President Trump’s warnings.
Tehran has sent its response to the US president’s letter through Oman. According to public statements, Iran has made it clear that, for now, it is only willing to take part in indirect talks.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, 3rd April, while aboard Air Force One (the official plane used by the US president), Trump said he believes that Iran is interested in holding direct talks with the United States. However, Iranian officials have not made any public statement to support or confirm this claim.
Trusting Arab Judgment
Considering the military strength of both the United States and Israel, Iran has made it clear that it does not want a war. Instead, it has repeated that it is open to making a deal, as long as it is based on “mutual respect.”
On another front, Iran is actively working on a regional diplomatic effort. This week, President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke one after another with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Tunisia. He asked them to promise that they won’t let the US use their land or airspace to launch attacks on Iran.
Even though there is still mistrust and long-standing rivalries, some Arab countries are being careful about getting involved in the tensions between the US and Iran. A major reason is their concern about unpredictable changes in energy markets, which is especially important for oil-producing nations in the Persian Gulf.
A possible conflict near the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman) could cause a major jump in oil prices. This is because about one-fifth (20% ) of the world’s oil supply passes through this route, making it extremely important for global energy trade.
In addition to other problems, the region is also facing climate-related challenges, like a growing water shortage. Countries such as Qatar are already dealing with this issue, which makes the idea of war even more worrying and unwanted.
Calmer Approach
According to Al-Monitor, the fear of a major war has made Iran reconsider and reduce some of its actions in the region, at least for now while tensions are high.
An unnamed Iranian official told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published on Thursday, 3rd April, that Iran is withdrawing its forces from Yemen. This move is meant to “avoid a direct conflict with the US,” which has recently been carrying out heavy attacks on the Houthi militia, a group supported by Iran.
There are also signs that Iran’s tone is becoming less aggressive. Ali Larijani, a top advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seemed to shift his position from what he said earlier on TV, where he had warned that Iran might consider developing nuclear weapons if it was attacked.
He wrote on X that “Mr. Trump is a talented person, which is why he has been successful in business.” This rare praise from an Iranian official for a US president also included advice to the United States to consider future economic investment opportunities in Iran.
In a separate development, Mahmoud Mohammad Araghi, a senior hard-line cleric and member of the Assembly of Experts—which is responsible for overseeing the Supreme Leader’s actions—hinted at a possible shift in Iran’s attitude toward the US. He suggested that engaging with Washington could be a good move, helping to prepare the Iranian public for the idea of direct talks.
In a speech, he called Iran’s approach “brave flexibility from strength,” referring to Khamenei’s 2013 shift that allowed talks with the US. It .means Iran chooses diplomacy not from weakness, but confidence. This led to the 2015 nuclear deal, showing courage to change course for the country’s benefit.
(The author of this article, Girish Linganna, is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
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