Watch out for Bihar, 1st state to poll after Waqf bill

Bihar will be the first state to go to Assembly elections after the passing of the Waqf Amendment Bill—a legislation that has the potential to sway sentiments and polarise—and will serve as the first electoral indicator of whether the ruling BJP played a winning hand.

The upcoming political battle in Bihar will be a straight showdown between the ruling BJP-JDU-LJP’s NDA, which supported the bill, and the opposition combination of parties like RJD and Congress, who opposed it.

Adding to the story are Prashant Kishor’s newbie Jan Suraj Party and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, both vehemently opposed to the bill and capable of dividing the anti-BJP vote.

Scheduled for October-November this year, elections to the 243-member Bihar Assembly will take place against the backdrop of several critical factors, including communal tensions, thus making the Waqf Amendment Bill a key deciding factor.

Waqf bill

The bill aims to amend the 1995 Waqf Act, which regulates the management of Waqf properties in India. Waqf is a charitable/religious donation by Muslims for the benefit of the community. Waqf properties include mosques, madrassas, shelter homes, and land donated by Muslims and managed by boards, and cannot be sold or used for any other purpose.

Muslims, the vote bank

According to reports quoting the Bihar Minority Welfare Department, Waqf has ownership rights over more than 29,000 bighas in Bihar, of which 50% has been encroached upon. About 18% of Bihar’s population is Muslim, and their vote is a crucial and decisive factor in many constituencies. With the legislation becoming such a sentimental issue, it is natural that parties like RJD, Congress, and Jan Suraj Party will play on anti-Waqf Bill sentiments; the question is who will be helped or harmed. Observers believe the Bill will increase polarisation in Bihar and help BJP strengthen the Hindu vote base and opposition RJD/Congress Muslim vote base.

However, the outcome of elections will depend on who plays the card better. Around 47-50 constituencies in the state have a significant Muslim voter base.

Impact on Bihar politics

Apart from deciding the political landscape of Bihar, the upcoming elections are also expected to decide the future of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United)—a party that Muslims have supported in the past. Ahead of the passage of the legislation in the Lok Sabha, there was speculation around how JD(U) would vote, given the political considerations and upcoming elections. But the bill sailed through with support from key NDA allies—TDP, JD(U), and LJP—parties which have found considerable support among minorities despite an alliance with BJP. They supported the Bill while underlining their commitment to “the welfare of Muslims” and “secularism.” JD(U) explained how it has done more for Muslims “than any other in Bihar since Independence,” and TDP talked of its commitment to the uplift of Muslims. Meanwhile, prominent Muslim political leaders and opposition opposed the bill, calling it “unconstitutional” and “against the Muslims.”

Caste after-effects

While dominance of communities, caste, and religion can shape election results, Haryana elections proved otherwise. A resounding victory was predicted for Congress in Haryana on the back of perceived anger among farmers, wrestlers, and the dominant Jaat community, but the factors did not work in its favor eventually. Nitish Kumar’s support for the Waqf Amendment Bill marks a significant shift in his politics ahead of the elections in Bihar. But polarization is a reality that Nitish Kumar, BJP, and opposition parties know well. Waqf politics may make the divide stronger in Bihar. Nitish Kumar may lose some Muslim votes, at the same time he may also end up being compensated by BJP’s gains. Also, in upcoming elections, AIMIM is expected to expand beyond Seemanchal.

Both AIMIM and Prashant Kishor’s party may cause a division in the Muslim vote bank, which may benefit the saffron cause. With six-seven months to go for Bihar elections, much can change. BJP claims the amendments will benefit poor Muslims by bringing much-needed transparency and reforms. Observers say it also depends upon how well the BJP is able to send this message in Bihar.

Next year, elections are also due in key states like West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, but Bihar being the first in the line will be watched keenly for the pattern of Muslim voters.

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